693
FXUS64 KJAN 100632 AAC
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
132 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 1008 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

The severe storm threat for the night has ended and the Severe
Thunderstorm Watch that was in effect for our northern counties was
allowed to expire. A weak cold front will continue to sag south
through the northern half of the CWA the remainder of the night.
This front may generate a few additional showers and
thunderstorms. It was a hot day and there hasn`t been much
convection to knock temperatures down. Temperature curves have
been adjusted but morning lows still look achievable. /22/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Tonight and Monday:

Showers and thunderstorm potential will continue into the evening as
a frontal boundary pushes through the CWA areas north of I-20. With
a moist airmass, favorable instability parameters, and deep-layer
flow, the severe weather threat will be ongoing into the evening.
Damaging winds near 60-70 mph and hail up to quarter-size will be
possible. No changes were made to the HWO graphic. Overnight lows
are expected to be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Lingering showers will be possible along and ahead of the frontal
boundary moving through the rest of the CWA on Monday, resulting in
showers and thunderstorms near central and southern portions of the
CWA but these storms are expected to be below severe limits. A sfc
ridge will filter into the region post frontal passage, bringing
dryer air and cooling afternoon temperatures down to the mid/upper
80s (elsewhere) and lower 90s (near Pine Belt). /SW/

Through mid-week (Monday night-Wednesday): Synoptic/sfc pattern at
the start will consist of deepening longwave trough over the eastern
CONUS while mean shortwave ridging will be situated over the
southern Plains. At the sfc, a frontal zone will be diving down
through the region, helping shunt rain & storm chances southward
along the Gulf Coast. With less oppressive thermo profiles (i.e.
850mb T 13-17 deg C & 925mb T in upper teens to near 20 deg C)
building in the wake & mean northerly flow in the 850-700mb layer,
expect more seasonable highs in the upper 80s to low 90s through
midweek. Heat stress not be a concern, as mean 850-700mb RH`s fall
to the 20-30% range Tuesday & <20% on Wednesday. This is due to
anomalously dry PWs around or less an inch Tuesday to less than half
inch on Wednesday. Under sfc high pressure, dry moisture profiles &
light winds, seasonably cool lows in the low-mid 60s are possible
both Monday & Tuesday nights. Rain chances will driven to the Gulf
Coast in the wake of the boundary. Next features to monitor are
disorganized/"hybrid" Gulf low in the southeast Gulf of Mexico &
upper low diving southeast out of the Plains. Moist return flow has
backed off, with more drying/subsidence persisting through the
midweek, keeping the area dry through mid-week.

Late week-next weekend (Thursday-Saturday): There has been continued
global consensus & ensembles of gradual, but slower development of a
"hybrid" low pressure across the Gulf of Mexico, more focused into
late next weekend. At the very least, this looks to bring a deep
slug of tropical moisture northward (i.e. 340-350K 850mb Theta E &
>2-2.5 inch PWs) across the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico. In
addition, there will be increased low-level convergence ahead of a
diving upper low across the Gulf coast states late week. At a
minimum, rain & storm coverage will be on the uptick late week into
next weekend, with isolated-scattered rain & storm chances southeast
of the Natchez Trace corridor. Details remain unclear at this point
in development & there remains no areas of concern highlighted by
the National Hurricane Center at this point. Any concerns for
impacts from this potential "hybrid" Gulf low pressure have slowed
well into the weekend & following week. Temperatures will be
moderating back more seasonable in upper 80s-low 90s to seasonably
warm & humid in the mid-upper 90s late week into next weekend, with
lows near seasonable in the mid-upper 60s Thursday morning to
seasonably warm in the low-mid 70s into next weekend. Heat stress
could again become a concern, as heat indices could peak >100F next
weekend. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 129 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the TAF sites through
the period, however some variable conditions near isolated SHRA
or TSRA during the period cannot be ruled out. Confidence on
impacts from thunder was too low to mention in the TAFs, though
chances should generally move from northern Mississippi early in
the period to southern Mississippi after 18Z. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       64  87  64  89 /   0  10   0   0
Meridian      62  88  62  91 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     65  87  65  89 /   0  10   0   0
Hattiesburg   67  91  67  92 /  20  10   0  10
Natchez       67  88  67  88 /  10  10   0   0
Greenville    64  86  64  88 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     62  86  62  89 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

22/DC/NF