Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
241 FXUS64 KJAN 310612 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 112 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 ...New AVIATION... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 1038 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 An MCV developed earlier this evening from convection to our west, with the center pivoting over northern Louisiana at this hour. A QLCS pushing out and trailing south from the MCV is now working its way into central and northeast Louisiana/southwest Mississippi. Mesoanalysis shows a gradient of MLCAPE angling down toward the southeast Louisiana coastline from the apex of the current bow. Current coldest cloud tops and lightning activity levels are trending south of Natchez, and this indicates the general corridor of greatest threat for damaging wind gusts or brief tornado threat over the next few hours. The portions of the line farther north should still hold together to bring better shower and thunderstorm chances than previous forecast. Have boosted POPs into the morning based on current trends and latest guidance. Instability drops off farther north, but some strong gusts and heavy downpours are still expected. Overall short- term guidance is still playing catchup, so some amount of extrapolation from the present situation is required. /NF/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 324 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Tonight and Friday: Showers and thunderstorms are expected to diminish as the evening progresses. An isolated shower can`t be rule out during the overnight hours. Otherwise, skies are expected to be partly cloudy with overnight temperatures in the mid 60s to lower 70s. On Friday, a stalled frontal boundary is expected to transition into a warm front and begin to lift northward from the Gulf coast, bringing moist/unstable air into the CWA. Once the aforementioned warm front lifts back through the area, a few shortwave disturbances is expected to traverse across the region. As a result, shower and thunderstorm potential will continue across the ArkLaMiss region, with best chances for severe weather and flash flooding during the afternoon and into the evening hours. A "Slight" risk for severe weather will be possible west of I-55; elsewhere; a "Marginal" risk for severe weather is in place. Damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado are the primary hazards of concern and HWO graphic will be updated to reflect the hazards. As PW values near 1.5 inches, flash flooding concerns will have to be monitored as 2-4 inches of rain will be possible. /SW/ Friday night through Wednesday night: Active weather including the potential for severe weather and flash flooding will be possible over most of the period. Come Friday evening a nearly stacked low will be moving from the central Plains to the mid Mississippi valley. Convection associated with this system will be ongoing from the afternoon and pose a threat of damaging wind gusts and tornadoes over the northwest portions of our CWA into the evening. The tornado threat will be ending during the evening while the damaging wind threat will continue into Saturday morning. Locally heavy rain will also accompany the storms. Saturday the low will track northeast across the Ohio valley while the trailing cold front stalls across the northwest portions of our CWA. Daytime heating of our warm moist airmass combined with subtle shortwaves and the stalled front will maintain a threat of isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and hail to the size of quarters Saturday afternoon and evening. The stalled front will remain a focus for convection through Sunday. During Friday night through Sunday there will be the potential for two to four inches of rain in a short amount of time. This would result in localized flash flooding. We will still have a warm moist airmass over our region come Monday. There will be the potential for diurnally driven convection along with another approaching cold front that will result in the potential for heavy rain and strong to isolated severe storms each day. /22/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 109 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Most TAF sites are VFR tonight, but showers/storms are moving across the southwestern portions of the area. As the storms move eastward, they may bring MVFR conditions to JAN/HBG over the next few hours. Expect these storms to continue to diminish through the night, but another round of storms are likely this afternoon. /15/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 88 69 83 68 / 40 30 80 40 Meridian 91 69 84 68 / 20 20 80 50 Vicksburg 87 68 83 69 / 70 40 80 40 Hattiesburg 91 71 87 69 / 20 20 80 40 Natchez 86 69 84 69 / 80 30 80 30 Greenville 86 70 83 70 / 70 60 80 40 Greenwood 88 68 82 69 / 40 50 80 50 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ /15