946
FXUS64 KJAN 081729 AAC
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1229 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 1008 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Forecast remains on track and no adjustments were made. GOES-16
satellite imagery shows a few high cirrus clouds due to convective
activity to the north of the CWA but overall, skies are clear across
the area. A ridge at the surface and aloft over the central Gulf
coast region is expected to keep conditions quiet and less humid
throughout the day. Afternoon temperatures in the lower 90s are
expected. Although temperatures are expected to be in the lower
90s, dewpoints mixing to the upper 50s and lower 60s will keep heat
indices low. /SW/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 428 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Today and Tonight:

An upper-level ridge centered over the west-central Gulf Coast this
morning will keep the chance for showers and thunderstorms to our
north today. A shortwave sliding along the north side of the ridge
will bring showers and thunderstorms to the Interstate 40 corridor,
but the above normal heights and PWAT values mostly below 1.5 inches
should limit convection in our forecast area. A surface high
currently over the Gulf Coast should weaken and push east through
the evening. Warmer and more humid air building from the west will
nudge overnight lows closer to or a few degrees above normal tonight
(68-72 degrees most spots). /NF/

Sunday through next Friday:

Sunday, the trough to ridge pattern continues to move eastward as
the surface high pressure weakens. This will continue to promote
warming as southerly wind flow increases. Sunday high temps will
max out in the mid 90s for most of the CWA with there being some
potential for areas in the Pine Belt to reach the upper 90s. We
can also see moisture increase with dewpoints to reach into the
70-74 range. This will lead to peak heat indices in the 100-103
range with some areas nearing 105 degrees, just below thresholds
for needing a heat graphic. During the mid-afternoon into the
evening, a wave will push down into northern MS. There are
limited chances for PoPs with the brunt of rain and storm chances
expected to stay just north of our CWA, however model guidance has
continually trended upwards in terms of some convection reaching
our area. PoPs remain low but soundings show the possibility for
at least isolated to scattered storms possible with some having
potential to be strong to severe in the northern portions of our
CWA. For most of the CWA PoP chances will be pretty much non-
existent with the air mass being much to dry with PWs sub 1.3
inches and a stronger cap being in place.

Monday, southerly winds will continue as moisture increases in
the area through midweek. Tuesday-Wednesday, troughing across the
Rockies will begin to shift eastward continuing rain chances into
midweek as multiple shortwaves swing through the area. The end of
the long term looks to be very uncertain as guidance has
struggled to produce any persistent weather pattern. But it looks
to be a period dominated by a broad area of low pressure over the
Gulf of Mexico.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

VFR flight conditions and light, southerly winds are expected to
prevail through the TAF period. /SW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       70  93  72  88 /   0  10  10  20
Meridian      68  96  72  90 /   0  10  10  30
Vicksburg     71  94  72  88 /   0   0  10  20
Hattiesburg   71  96  73  93 /   0   0   0  30
Natchez       71  93  71  89 /   0   0  10  20
Greenville    73  96  70  86 /  10  20  20  10
Greenwood     71  95  70  86 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

NF/KP/SW