Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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650 FXUS64 KJAN 040102 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 802 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 ...New MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 754 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 The anticipated squall line is blowing into far northwestern portions of our forecast area at the present time - moving into northeast Louisiana, far southeast Arkansas, and northwestern portions of Mississippi. Westerly deep-layer wind shear and the availability of moist unstable air ahead of this line of storms should see it continue south and east over the next few hours. The greatest instability is located along the southern flank of the system, and it`s anticipated that the portions moving south or southeast will have the greatest damaging wind threat. Some hail has been observed with isolated storms that popped up ahead of the line, but generally the wind and heavy rain will be the main concerns into this evening. Isolated showers and storms continue elsewhere in the forecast area, but activity remains mostly below severe thresholds and is diminishing in coverage. /NF/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 342 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Through Tuesday: The primary focus this evening will be on an MCS approaching from the northwest. Extrapolation brings this system through western portions of the area this evening, but it`s still a bit questionable how a less unstable environment over southern AR/northern LA might affect the integrity of the system. Assuming the system maintains its intensity, we are keeping the threat for severe weather going for the western half of the area, with the primary concern being for damaging wind gusts. Thereafter, it is likely the system will dissipate quickly should it reach eastern MS. Going into Tuesday, we will be monitoring for the next potential MCS as active westerlies remain over the region. Much of the guidance shows such a system may be more likely earlier in the day, and as has been the case, damaging wind gusts will continue to be the primary concern. /EC/ Tuesday night through Sunday night: the extended forecast remains on track as an unsettled weather pattern continues through the mid-week with shortwave disturbances and an approaching frontal boundary moving through the area. Post frontal passage will bring a brief drying period Friday through Sunday, but then rain chances will return by Sunday afternoon through the end of the period as guidance shows the aforementioned frontal boundary lifting northward from the Gulf coast. Seasonable temperatures are expected throughout the extended period with highs in the upper 80s/lower 90s and lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. An active weather pattern is expected to continue Tuesday evening as upper-level westerly/northwesterly flow pushes shortwave disturbances from the central Plains through the region. With a moist airmass, decent instability parameters, and bulk shear in place, some organized convection will be possible but severe weather is uncertain. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible along/north of HWY 82 and eastern MS before spreading areawide Wednesday. A low pressure center near Lake Superior is expected to progress towards the Atlantic Northeast, pushing an associated cold front towards the southeast region Thursday. As a result, shower/thunderstorm chances will continue. We will continue to monitor any chances for severe weather with this system. Post frontal passage is expected to bring quiet and slightly lower dewpoints to the area to begin the weekend as a surface ridge shift eastward. The aforementioned frontal system is expected to stall near the Gulf coast and lift northward, resulting in rain chances returning on Sunday afternoon and remaining until the end of the period. /SW/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 754 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Main risk for aviation during the TAF period will be TSRA and the potential for variable conditions near any storms. A line of storms moving southeast across the forecast area through at least 08Z Tuesday could bring severe wind gusts, variable ceilings, and reduced visibility with heavy rainfall. Some threat for low stratus and MVFR ceilings will build in as rainfall threat diminishes, and then scattered SHRA or TSRA will be possible again after 18Z Tuesday. Confidence in timing or location for any storms during that time frame were too low to mention in the TAFs at this time. /NF/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 71 89 73 89 / 50 40 20 50 Meridian 69 89 71 91 / 40 60 30 40 Vicksburg 72 89 73 89 / 70 40 20 50 Hattiesburg 72 91 73 92 / 50 40 20 30 Natchez 72 89 73 89 / 40 40 20 40 Greenville 72 88 73 87 / 80 40 20 60 Greenwood 71 88 73 87 / 70 50 30 70 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ EC/SW/NF