Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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473 FXUS64 KJAN 091956 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 256 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 ...New DISCUSSION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 256 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Tonight and Monday: Showers and thunderstorm potential will continue into the evening as a frontal boundary pushes through the CWA areas north of I-20. With a moist airmass, favorable instability parameters, and deep-layer flow, the severe weather threat will be ongoing into the evening. Damaging winds near 60-70 mph and hail up to quarter-size will be possible. No changes were made to the HWO graphic. Overnight lows are expected to be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Lingering showers will be possible along and ahead of the frontal boundary moving through the rest of the CWA on Monday, resulting in showers and thunderstorms near central and southern portions of the CWA but these storms are expected to be below severe limits. A sfc ridge will filter into the region post frontal passage, bringing dryer air and cooling afternoon temperatures down to the mid/upper 80s (elsewhere) and lower 90s (near Pine Belt). /SW/ Through mid-week (Monday night-Wednesday): Synoptic/sfc pattern at the start will consist of deepening longwave trough over the eastern CONUS while mean shortwave ridging will be situated over the southern Plains. At the sfc, a frontal zone will be diving down through the region, helping shunt rain & storm chances southward along the Gulf Coast. With less oppressive thermo profiles (i.e. 850mb T 13-17 deg C & 925mb T in upper teens to near 20 deg C) building in the wake & mean northerly flow in the 850-700mb layer, expect more seasonable highs in the upper 80s to low 90s through midweek. Heat stress not be a concern, as mean 850-700mb RH`s fall to the 20-30% range Tuesday & <20% on Wednesday. This is due to anomalously dry PWs around or less an inch Tuesday to less than half inch on Wednesday. Under sfc high pressure, dry moisture profiles & light winds, seasonably cool lows in the low-mid 60s are possible both Monday & Tuesday nights. Rain chances will driven to the Gulf Coast in the wake of the boundary. Next features to monitor are disorganized/"hybrid" Gulf low in the southeast Gulf of Mexico & upper low diving southeast out of the Plains. Moist return flow has backed off, with more drying/subsidence persisting through the midweek, keeping the area dry through mid-week. Late week-next weekend (Thursday-Saturday): There has been continued global consensus & ensembles of gradual, but slower development of a "hybrid" low pressure across the Gulf of Mexico, more focused into late next weekend. At the very least, this looks to bring a deep slug of tropical moisture northward (i.e. 340-350K 850mb Theta E & >2-2.5 inch PWs) across the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico. In addition, there will be increased low-level convergence ahead of a diving upper low across the Gulf coast states late week. At a minimum, rain & storm coverage will be on the uptick late week into next weekend, with isolated-scattered rain & storm chances southeast of the Natchez Trace corridor. Details remain unclear at this point in development & there remains no areas of concern highlighted by the National Hurricane Center at this point. Any concerns for impacts from this potential "hybrid" Gulf low pressure have slowed well into the weekend & following week. Temperatures will be moderating back more seasonable in upper 80s-low 90s to seasonably warm & humid in the mid-upper 90s late week into next weekend, with lows near seasonable in the mid-upper 60s Thursday morning to seasonably warm in the low-mid 70s into next weekend. Heat stress could again become a concern, as heat indices could peak >100F next weekend. /DC/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 249 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 VFR flight conditions and westerly/southwesterly winds near 5 mph are expected to start the TAF period. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon and evening hours at northern TAF sites as a cold front moves into the area. 40-50 kt gusts and 1.0 in hail with brief reduction of ceilings and visibility will be possible at sites receiving these storms. MVFR flight conditions will be possible at TAF sites north of I-20 around 07Z Monday for as the front migrates through the area, returning to VFR conditions after 13Z Monday. Remaining TAF sites are expected to remain at VFR through the end of the period. /SW/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 71 86 65 87 / 10 20 0 10 Meridian 71 88 64 88 / 30 20 0 0 Vicksburg 71 86 65 87 / 10 20 0 10 Hattiesburg 73 92 68 91 / 10 50 10 10 Natchez 70 88 68 88 / 0 30 0 10 Greenville 70 85 64 86 / 30 20 0 0 Greenwood 69 85 63 86 / 40 20 0 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ SW/DC/SW