Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
812 FXUS64 KJAN 081508 AAB AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 1008 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 ...New MESOSCALE UPDATE... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 1008 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Forecast remains on track and no adjustments were made. GOES-16 satellite imagery shows a few high cirrus clouds due to convective activity to the north of the CWA but overall, skies are clear across the area. A ridge at the surface and aloft over the central Gulf coast region is expected to keep conditions quiet and less humid throughout the day. Afternoon temperatures in the lower 90s are expected. Although temperatures are expected to be in the lower 90s, dewpoints mixing to the upper 50s and lower 60s will keep heat indices low. /SW/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 428 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Today and Tonight: An upper-level ridge centered over the west-central Gulf Coast this morning will keep the chance for showers and thunderstorms to our north today. A shortwave sliding along the north side of the ridge will bring showers and thunderstorms to the Interstate 40 corridor, but the above normal heights and PWAT values mostly below 1.5 inches should limit convection in our forecast area. A surface high currently over the Gulf Coast should weaken and push east through the evening. Warmer and more humid air building from the west will nudge overnight lows closer to or a few degrees above normal tonight (68-72 degrees most spots). /NF/ Sunday through next Friday: Sunday, the trough to ridge pattern continues to move eastward as the surface high pressure weakens. This will continue to promote warming as southerly wind flow increases. Sunday high temps will max out in the mid 90s for most of the CWA with there being some potential for areas in the Pine Belt to reach the upper 90s. We can also see moisture increase with dewpoints to reach into the 70-74 range. This will lead to peak heat indices in the 100-103 range with some areas nearing 105 degrees, just below thresholds for needing a heat graphic. During the mid-afternoon into the evening, a wave will push down into northern MS. There are limited chances for PoPs with the brunt of rain and storm chances expected to stay just north of our CWA, however model guidance has continually trended upwards in terms of some convection reaching our area. PoPs remain low but soundings show the possibility for at least isolated to scattered storms possible with some having potential to be strong to severe in the northern portions of our CWA. For most of the CWA PoP chances will be pretty much non- existent with the air mass being much to dry with PWs sub 1.3 inches and a stronger cap being in place. Monday, southerly winds will continue as moisture increases in the area through midweek. Tuesday-Wednesday, troughing across the Rockies will begin to shift eastward continuing rain chances into midweek as multiple shortwaves swing through the area. The end of the long term looks to be very uncertain as guidance has struggled to produce any persistent weather pattern. But it looks to be a period dominated by a broad area of low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 619 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 VFR conditions and winds generally from the south at less than 10 kts are expected to prevail through the TAF period. Cannot rule out some patchy BR in far southern portions of the area near 12Z Sunday, but confidence in MVFR or lower impacts was too low to mention in the TAFs at this time. /NF/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 91 70 93 72 / 0 0 10 10 Meridian 92 68 96 72 / 0 0 10 10 Vicksburg 92 71 94 72 / 0 0 0 10 Hattiesburg 94 71 96 73 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 92 71 93 71 / 0 0 0 10 Greenville 93 73 96 70 / 0 10 20 20 Greenwood 91 71 95 70 / 0 10 20 20 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ NF/KP/NF