Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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855 FXUS64 KJAN 090639 AAC AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 139 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 258 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Tonight and Sunday: Dry and quiet conditions are expected tonight as upper-lvl/sfc ridging remains over the central Gulf coast region. Clear skies and calm winds may help for patchy fog development across southern portions of the CWA Overnight low temperatures are expected to be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. The upper-lvl/sfc ridge is expected to migrate towards the east, resulting in quiet and dry conditions through Sunday afternoon. As the ridge moves eastward, southwesterly to westerly flow will advect moist air into the region and increase dewpoints/humidity. High temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 90s. With increasing humidity and low/mid 90 degree temperatures, heat indices near 105 will be possible. An HWO graphic was created to highlight the heat risk areas. By late afternoon, a shortwave disturbance begins to move into the northern portion of the area. As result, low rain PoPs (10-20%) will be possible for northern/northeastern parts of the CWA. With high boundary layer moisture and decent flow, a "Marginal" risk for severe weather was introduced by SPC and highlighted in the HWO graphics. /SW/ Next week (Sunday night through next Friday)... Through mid-week (Sunday night-Wednesday): Synoptic/sfc pattern at the start will consist of deepening longwave trough over the eastern CONUS while mean ridging will be situated over the southern Plains into the lee of the Rockies. At the sfc, a frontal zone will be diving down through the region. This is expected to have enough moisture/convergence for some continuation of isolated rain & storm chances, with some strong to isolated severe possible into Sunday evening. With moist low-levels, seasonably warm lows are expected Sunday night. With less oppressive thermo profiles (i.e. 850mb T 14- 18 deg C & 925mb T in upper teens to low 20s C) building in the wake & mean northerly flow in the 850-700mb layer, expect more seasonable highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Some lingering flow will keep some strong storm potential around as the front passes through, but no major concerns to highlight for Monday. Heat stress will be much less, with only concerns on Monday aftn south of I-20 into the Pine Belt where they could peak near 100 deg F. Rain & storm chances become more scoured out north of the Hwy 84 corridor as drier air less than an inch PWs builds in from the north. Next features of concern will be a potential "hybrid" Gulf low pressure & upper low diving southeast out of the Plains. This will help gradual moist return flow on the western periphery of the mean low-level ridge, ahead of potential tropical moisture that builds in from the southeast. Isolated-scattered rain & storms are possible southeast of the Natchez Trace, but there is some disagreement in potential onset, so this could be a touch too optimistic on more scattered rain chances returning. Late week (Thursday-Friday): There seems to be enough in global consensus & ensembles of gradual development of a "hybrid" low pressure across the Gulf of Mexico into late week & possibly next weekend. At the very least, this looks to bring a deep slug of tropical moisture northward (i.e. 340-350K 850mb Theta E & >2-2.5 inch PWs) across the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico. In addition, there will be increased low-level convergence ahead of a diving upper low across the Gulf coast states late week. At a minimum, rain & storm coverage will be on the uptick, with scattered rain chances along & southeast of the Natchez Trace corridor while more isolated to the northwest. Details remain unclear at this point in development & no areas of concern are highlighted by the National Hurricane Center at this point. Temperatures will be moderating back to more seasonable in upper 80s to low 90s, with seasonably warm lows in the upper 60s-low 70s Thursday morning to low-mid 70s into next weekend. /DC/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 138 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the TAF sites through the period, however some patchy shallow BR cannot be ruled out around 12Z today. Isolated to scattered SHRA and TSRA are expected north of Interstate 20 after 18Z, with some chance for impacts to the northern TAF sites KGLH, KGWO, and KGTR. /NF/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 71 88 67 87 / 10 20 10 10 Meridian 72 90 66 89 / 20 20 10 10 Vicksburg 71 88 68 88 / 10 20 10 10 Hattiesburg 74 93 69 92 / 0 40 20 20 Natchez 71 90 69 89 / 0 20 10 10 Greenville 71 86 65 86 / 20 20 0 10 Greenwood 70 86 64 87 / 20 20 0 10 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ SW/DC/NF