Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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970 FXUS64 KJAN 082344 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 644 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 258 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Tonight and Sunday: Dry and quiet conditions are expected tonight as upper-lvl/sfc ridging remains over the central Gulf coast region. Clear skies and calm winds may help for patchy fog development across southern portions of the CWA Overnight low temperatures are expected to be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. The upper-lvl/sfc ridge is expected to migrate towards the east, resulting in quiet and dry conditions through Sunday afternoon. As the ridge moves eastward, southwesterly to westerly flow will advect moist air into the region and increase dewpoints/humidity. High temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 90s. With increasing humidity and low/mid 90 degree temperatures, heat indices near 105 will be possible. An HWO graphic was created to highlight the heat risk areas. By late afternoon, a shortwave disturbance begins to move into the northern portion of the area. As result, low rain PoPs (10-20%) will be possible for northern/northeastern parts of the CWA. With high boundary layer moisture and decent flow, a "Marginal" risk for severe weather was introduced by SPC and highlighted in the HWO graphics. /SW/ Next week (Sunday night through next Friday)... Through mid-week (Sunday night-Wednesday): Synoptic/sfc pattern at the start will consist of deepening longwave trough over the eastern CONUS while mean ridging will be situated over the southern Plains into the lee of the Rockies. At the sfc, a frontal zone will be diving down through the region. This is expected to have enough moisture/convergence for some continuation of isolated rain & storm chances, with some strong to isolated severe possible into Sunday evening. With moist low-levels, seasonably warm lows are expected Sunday night. With less oppressive thermo profiles (i.e. 850mb T 14- 18 deg C & 925mb T in upper teens to low 20s C) building in the wake & mean northerly flow in the 850-700mb layer, expect more seasonable highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Some lingering flow will keep some strong storm potential around as the front passes through, but no major concerns to highlight for Monday. Heat stress will be much less, with only concerns on Monday aftn south of I-20 into the Pine Belt where they could peak near 100 deg F. Rain & storm chances become more scoured out north of the Hwy 84 corridor as drier air less than an inch PWs builds in from the north. Next features of concern will be a potential "hybrid" Gulf low pressure & upper low diving southeast out of the Plains. This will help gradual moist return flow on the western periphery of the mean low-level ridge, ahead of potential tropical moisture that builds in from the southeast. Isolated-scattered rain & storms are possible southeast of the Natchez Trace, but there is some disagreement in potential onset, so this could be a touch too optimistic on more scattered rain chances returning. Late week (Thursday-Friday): There seems to be enough in global consensus & ensembles of gradual development of a "hybrid" low pressure across the Gulf of Mexico into late week & possibly next weekend. At the very least, this looks to bring a deep slug of tropical moisture northward (i.e. 340-350K 850mb Theta E & >2-2.5 inch PWs) across the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico. In addition, there will be increased low-level convergence ahead of a diving upper low across the Gulf coast states late week. At a minimum, rain & storm coverage will be on the uptick, with scattered rain chances along & southeast of the Natchez Trace corridor while more isolated to the northwest. Details remain unclear at this point in development & no areas of concern are highlighted by the National Hurricane Center at this point. Temperatures will be moderating back to more seasonable in upper 80s to low 90s, with seasonably warm lows in the upper 60s-low 70s Thursday morning to low-mid 70s into next weekend. /DC/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 632 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 TSRA may come in vcty of GWO-GTR toward the end of the TAF period. Otherwise, VFR conditions wl prevail through Sunday aftn. /22/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 70 94 71 88 / 0 10 10 20 Meridian 68 96 72 90 / 0 10 20 20 Vicksburg 72 94 71 88 / 0 0 10 20 Hattiesburg 71 96 74 93 / 0 0 0 40 Natchez 71 93 71 90 / 0 0 0 20 Greenville 74 96 71 86 / 0 10 20 20 Greenwood 72 94 70 86 / 0 20 20 20 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ SW/DC/22