332
FXUS64 KJAN 071430 AAB
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
930 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 919 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Ongoing forecast is in excellent shape and no real modifications
needed. Quiet near/short term as deep layer dry air keeps
filtering into the area. 12z JAN sounding supported this as well
as blended tpw showing PWs of 1.25 in or less across the region
with less than 1.0 in PWs moving into our N/NE area this morning.
Look for low RH values today with min RH in the 30-37% range as
we see Td drop to 55-63 (N to S) with mixing today. This will lead
to a cool early June night with lows 60-65 degrees which is some
4-7 degrees below avg. /CME/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 431 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Today and Tonight:

In the wake of a cold front passing through the region, dry post-
frontal air may be a cause for celebration as we head into the first
weekend of summer! High pressure at the surface and building heights
aloft as a ridge moves east along the Gulf Coast should keep skies
mostly clear. Don`t expect too much in the way of "cooler"
afternoon temps as the light northerly wind won`t be enough to
negate the direct June sunshine, but afternoon humidity only in the
30 to 40 percent range will be followed up by overnight lows in the
lower to mid 60s. Winds should generally be lighter than 10 mph
through this evening. /NF/

Saturday through next Thursday:

Saturday and Sunday, ridging across the southern states will
enhance high pressure aloft keeping the area dry and rain and
storm chances limited. Sunday, high pressure will begin to move
eastward promoting a warming trend, with high temps maxing out in
the mid 90s for most of the CWA and there being some potential
for areas in the Pine Belt to reach the upper 90s. While peak heat
indices in some areas will near 105 degrees, no heat related
products are being advertised at the moment but will be re-
evaluated on a day to day basis. Come Sunday afternoon into the
evening, a weak shortwave is primed to drop into the area and
bring a return to rain and storm chances. While confidence for
precipitation is limited on Sunday as the air mass might be too
"dry" due to PWs being near 1.25 inches, it is possible for some
isolated rain and storm chances in the northern portions of the
CWA during afternoon and evening. Monday, southerly winds will
increase and moisture begins to return to the area through
midweek. Tuesday, troughing across the Rockies will begin to
shift eastward continuing rain chances into midweek as multiple
weak shortwaves swing through the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

VFR conditions and northerly winds generally less than 10 kts
should prevail at the TAF sites through the period. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       90  63  92  70 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      91  62  92  68 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     90  64  92  71 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   92  65  95  71 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       90  66  93  71 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    93  65  92  73 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     90  64  91  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

CME/NF/KP