502
FXUS64 KJAN 040835
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
335 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 335 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Through tonight: A few areas of light to moderate rain comprise
the remaining vestiges of two MCSs that moved into the area
yesterday evening. Both of these systems have long since weakened,
but not before producing wind damage in several areas. Also of
note, a wake low developed across parts of AR and north MS behind
the first MCS and has resulted in southerly winds that have been
gusty at times overnight.

Looking ahead to today, we`re in for another complicated and low
confidence forecast heavily driven by mesoscale details.
Considerable cloud debris and perhaps some shower activity will
likely persist well into this morning. After the convective
overturning that took place overnight, there will likely need to
be some window of recovery during the day before the atmosphere
will again be primed for more widespread convection. The 00z
guidance suite zeroed in on the convective complex currently
moving into the Red River Valley of OK as the next system to bring
thunderstorms into our area from midday through the afternoon.
However, some later runs of the HRRR backed off on this solution
somewhat, weakening the storms as they move eastward, perhaps
hinting at a scenario in which the airmass has not had sufficient
time to recover. And so, these two solutions appear to represent
our best and worst case scenarios for today. If this MCS is able
to maintain progress into our area or weaken then become
reinvigorated later today into this evening, it will have the
potential to carry similar threats to last night`s storms with
damaging wind gusts being the primary concern. For this we are
highlighting SPC`s day one marginal to slight risk across our
region. If this is the scenario that prevails, localized flooding
can`t be ruled out particularly in areas that have seen similar
activity in recent days. But there is also the potential failure
mode, in which the atmosphere doesn`t sufficiently recover and
overall precip coverage is limited. We`ll watch closely how this
plays out through the morning and provide more updates along the
way. /DL/

Tuesday through early to mid next week...

High pressure over the southeastern CONUS will keep a steady
stream of moisture into the area, supportive of daily rain and
storm chances for much of the extended period. A warm moist
boundary layer beneath perturbed midlevel flow will result in a
period of enhanced activity through the remainder of the week.
With PWAT generally in excess of 1.7 inches, several rounds of
storms will be possible. Flow in the 20-30 kt range will aid in
the organization of these storms, with greatest confidence in the
extended period for a system Wednesday. A shortwave will help
drive the complex and aid in moisture recovery. Flow is ample for
organization and DCAPE around 1000 j/kg range will support
downbursts capable of damaging wind gusts. There is still a bit of
uncertainty regarding timing and evolution of these systems as a
lot depends on mesoscale features. Given the conditional nature
and overall low confidence, expect adjustments in the forecast as
more data becomes available.

Storm chances will likely continue into Thursday/Friday as a cold
front pushes south. several more complexes appear possible where
the environment remains favorable, mainly the southwest. There is
a chance that the front stalls out and should this happen, given
the lingering moisture reservoir, this may serve as a focus for
storms, however this is only speculation at this time. Storms will
continue to be possible south of the front where moisture remains
abundant, but overall confidence in their organization and
evolution remains low. In the wake of the cold front Saturday,
drier air will shift focus further south, thus limiting the chance
for storms. Moisture recovery will be possible Sunday as high
pressure shifts east and a shortwave pushes across the midsouth,
bringing a return of rain and storm chances. PoPs remain low at
this time. Early to mid next week gets a bit interesting, as a
seasonally anomalous trough digs south across the eastern CONUS.
This will likely favor below normal temperatures. Persistent
northerlies and high pressure will favor drier conditions and
perhaps a more spring-like feel./SAS/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

A line of SHRA with a few TS is weakening as it pushes east across
the area, however there are some ceiling/visby reductions in +RA
and low stratus. A patchy low stratus deck is expected to increase
through the early morning hours, with IFR/MVFR ceilings at many
sites. Conditions will improve mid to late morning, with VFR
conditions returning by midday in most areas. Another line of TS
is possible from midday into the afternoon with gusts to 50 kt and
1 inch hail possible. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected
outside of storms. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       89  72  89  71 /  60  20  50  40
Meridian      89  70  91  70 /  60  30  40  60
Vicksburg     89  72  88  71 /  60  10  50  40
Hattiesburg   89  72  92  73 /  50  30  30  40
Natchez       89  72  89  71 /  60  10  40  30
Greenville    88  72  86  72 /  60  20  60  30
Greenwood     89  72  86  71 /  60  30  60  30

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

DL/SAS