624
FXUS62 KJAX 140005
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
805 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 201 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Low pressure continues to move offshore, with a front laying
across central Florida leaving ample moisture for scattered to
numerous afternoon showers with embedded isolated thunderstorm
potential across NE FL. The highest coverage of showers and storms
will be over north central Florida where sea breezes interact,
locally heavy downpours will be the primary concern today as PWATs
sit near 2 inches in that area. Mild low temperatures forecast
tonight, with the coast staying in the mid to upper 70s, with
lower 70s inland and calm winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 201 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Friday, southern stream mid to upper level trough will sink south
and east of our area as ridging aloft builds eastward from the
mid south region. The former feature will help push the previously
stalled frontal boundary into central FL and steer the weak low
northeast away from the region into the western Atlantic waters
with weak high pressure delivering some drier air. This will
limit higher pops to the southern St Johns river basin and over
north central FL where higher moisture levels reside just behind
the frontal boundary. Northeast winds will push the Atlantic
seabreeze well inland with scattered shower development along
and west of I-95 inland to areas south of the Okefenokee Swamp
of SE GA shifting south and west to much of inland NE FL with
embedded widely scattered T`storms. Rainfall amounts will be
overall light under a  tenth of an inch over SE GA and under a
quarter of an inch across NE FL as showers shift south and west
with some locally higher rainfall amounts over portions of north
central FL. Highs will be cooler along our coast into the upper
80s and hotter inland with mid 90s west of highway 301.

Saturday, as low and mid level ridging moves over the region,
rising heights will allow highs to be hotter inland reaching the
upper 90s west of I-95 and around 100 degrees west of highway
301 from abundant sunshine. Max heat index values will rise above
100 to around 105 degrees over many locations. Away from the coast,
a widely isolated T`storm is possible over SE GA with widely
scattered T`storms south of I-10 in the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 201 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Mid to upper level ridging will build over the area northward into
the southern Appalachian mountains Sunday and expand north and east
towards New England through midweek. This pattern will support a
backdoor cold front moving down the southeast coast towards the
area late Sunday and moving through the area Monday before stalling
near or just south of the area with onshore breezy easterly flow.
Precipitation chances will be in the 20-30 percent range Sunday
and 30-40 percent range Monday and Tuesday with widely scattered
T`storms mainly over NE FL away from the coast as the Atlantic
seabreeze moves well inland towards the Gulf coast each day.
Pops will increase to 40-60 percent over NE FL midweek with
scattered to numerous T`storms across NE FL as moisture steadily
increases with isolated to scattered T`storm coverage over SE GA.

Temperatures during the period will start above normal Sunday
with upper 90s far inland and then cool to near average Monday
into next week with mid/upper 80s coast and low 90s inland.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 742 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

VFR conditions anticipated through much of the forecasted period
with IFR cloud decks over coastal sites expected to become less
dense before 02-03z this evening. Winds will also become more mild
and variable overnight with winds redeveloping from out of the NE
on Friday afternoon with sustained wind speeds of about 10knots
and gusts approaching 20 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 201 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

A weak tropical low will slowly organize offshore of the
southeast coast through the rest of this week, see the latest NHC
outlook for details on the low. Breezy east to northeast winds
over the local waters as high pressure remains to the north of the
area. A stalled front over the waters will allow for showers and
thunderstorms over the waters through Friday. Stronger high
pressure will build south from Eastern great lakes on Saturday and
push the frontal boundary south of the local waters with
decreasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. Light easterly
winds Saturday will become breezy on Sunday into early next week
as the high builds down the eastern seaboard and then shifts
northeast of the region next week.

Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk for NE FL and SE GA
beaches through Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  71  94  72  99 /   0  10   0  20
SSI  76  89  76  91 /  20  30   0  10
JAX  73  92  72  96 /  10  40   0  10
SGJ  75  89  73  93 /  30  50  10  20
GNV  73  94  70  98 /  20  50  10  30
OCF  73  94  73  96 /  40  60  20  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$