Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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115 FXUS62 KJAX 121733 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 133 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1021 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf The tropical low will pass to our south with some convection likely firing to it`s north, just south of an old surface front. So the best likelihood for convection will be south of a line from Matanzas Inlet to Gainesville to Trenton. Best chance of precipitation will be from about 3 p.m. through 9 p.m. Later tonight, as the low passes offshore it will try to consolidate and we might see some showers and thunderstorms over the coastal waters. Updated the probability of Precipitation across the southern areas and slightly increased the POPS. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 418 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Early morning surface analysis depicts the center of Invest 90L (1008 millibars) drifting northeastward across Tampa Bay. Meanwhile, a stationary frontal boundary was draped from the northern Gulf coast eastward along the Interstate 10 corridor. Otherwise, weak high pressure (1018 millibars) was building southward down the Appalachians mountains. Aloft...deep troughing was slowly moving northeastward across New England, with westerly flow in place locally downstream of a shortwave trough that was progressing east-southeastward across the Ozarks and the lower Mississippi Valley. Latest GOES-East derived Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates that deep tropical moisture remains in place for locations along and south of the stalled frontal boundary, where PWAT values ranged from 1.8 - 2.0 inches, while a much drier air mass remains in place across inland portions of southeast GA, where PWAT values were generally in the 1.2 - 1.5 inch range. Pockets of low and mid level clouds were moving northward from central FL into north central FL, with higher altitude cloud cover in place across most of southeast GA. Temperatures and dewpoints at 08Z were mostly in the 70s, except at coastal locations, where temperatures remain around 80 degrees at area beaches. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 418 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Low stratus cloud cover and pockets of fog may expand somewhat this morning, especially across north central FL. These lower clouds should dissipate by the early to mid-morning hours. Otherwise, low pressure will migrate northeastward along the Interstate 4 corridor today, emerging off the FL Atlantic coast near Daytona Beach this evening. Deep tropical moisture will remain in place today for locations south of the Interstate 10 corridor, where convection should begin to develop later this morning and this afternoon. Meanwhile, high pressure centered over the Appalachians this morning will briefly wedge down the southeastern seaboard today, creating a tightening local pressure gradient across our region that will result in east-northeasterly winds strengthening and becoming breezy from north to south along the I-95 corridor and points eastward today. These northeasterly winds will reinforce the already dry air mass across southeast GA, and this flow will focus a more widespread area of convection along the I-75 corridor late this afternoon and into the evening hours as mesoscale boundaries collide within a seasonably moist air mass along and south of the stalled frontal boundary. Pulsing, slow moving convection may again result in localized flooding later today, especially for urban locations such as Gainesville and Ocala, where 1-3 inches of rainfall may occur in a short period of time on a localized basis. Merging and pulsing convection may result in a few briefly stronger storms that will be capable of producing downburst winds of 40-50 mph and frequent lightning strikes. Breezy onshore winds this afternoon will keep coastal highs generally in the upper 80s, while inland highs mostly reach the lower 90s, with a few mid 90s possible in the Suwannee Valley. Low level convergence will strengthen tonight as Invest 90L moves slowly northeastward across the Gulf Stream waters adjacent to northeast FL. These onshore winds may begin to advect showers and possibly some lower topped convection onshore along the I-95 corridor during the overnight hours. Otherwise, evening convection will wind down before midnight along the I-75 corridor, with patches of lower stratus and fog possibly developing during the predawn hours at locations that receive heavier downpours later today. Lows tonight will generally fall to the 70-75 degree range area-wide. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 418 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 The area of broad low pressure will have made its way off the FL coast by early Thursday morning, remaining at a low chance of any development due to a non favorable environment. Main focus for this forecast period will be the increase chances of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon hours for both days for locations south of the stalled frontal boundary in north central Florida. Marginal risk for excessive rainfall by the WPC remains for southern areas of Marion County on Thursday. Daytime temperature highs will begin sit in the lower 90s for much of the local area, with southern Marion County and coastal areas dipping to the mid to upper 80s. Overnight lows will see temperatures sit in the lower 70s across inland locations and in the mid 70s along the coast. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 418 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 With the frontal boundary finally making its way out of the local area, in addition to the broad area of low pressure lifting off towards the northeast, chances of showers and thunderstorms should begin to lessen from the past couple of day. Enough moisture may persist over the area to allow for afternoon showers and storms to develop during the weekend and into the upcoming week. Temperatures will look to rise to warmer than average levels during the early portion of the weekend before more seasonal levels become established as the Atlantic sea breeze will bring in cooler air. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 127 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 A few showers and thunderstorms are developing near the Jacksonville Metro area and also over the coastal waters east of Jacksonville Beach. The offshore storms are slowly working their way back toward the coast and thus have introduced tempo groups for the Jacksonville Metro Fields. Otherwise not much has changed with the thinking for today as our tropical low passes south of our area and high pressure builds in to our north.The pressure gradient between the two will keep winds from the ENE and they gusty into the evening hours, dropping off a bit after sunset. && .MARINE... Issued at 1021 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 A weak tropical low will pass offshore this evening and try to consolidate as it moves further east. See the latest NHC outlook for details on the low. High pressure to our north will increase the pressure gradient across the coastal waters generating some stronger northeast to east winds over the next few days. Rip Currents: |Onshore winds will become breezy from north to south today along our coast, generating a moderate rip current risk by this afternoon for all area beaches. This moderate risk will likely continue through Friday as a northeasterly ocean swell develops in the wake of a departing low pressure center. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 418 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 East-northeasterly surface and transport winds will gradually strengthen today, creating fair to good daytime dispersion values. Locally heavy downpours are expected late this afternoon and early this evening along the Interstate 75 corridor as thunderstorms increase in coverage. Breezy northeasterly transport winds on Thursday will create good to marginally high daytime dispersion values across southeast GA and northern portions of the Suwannee Valley, with cloud cover keeping values generally fair for locations south of Interstate 10. Northeasterly surface and transport winds will begin to weaken on Friday, but elevated mixing heights will result in marginally high daytime dispersion values across inland portions of southeast GA and northern portions of the Suwannee Valley, with fair to good values expected elsewhere. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 91 70 93 69 / 20 10 20 10 SSI 87 75 87 75 / 20 30 40 20 JAX 91 72 90 72 / 30 40 60 20 SGJ 89 75 89 74 / 40 30 70 40 GNV 92 72 91 69 / 60 40 70 30 OCF 92 72 90 72 / 80 60 80 50 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$