914
FXUS62 KJAX 101825
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
225 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH SE GA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Potential for widely scattered strong to severe storms developing
over southeast Georgia this afternoon ahead of a frontal boundary
pressing down from out of the north with a more humid
southwesterly-westerly flow moving across the forecast area.
Primary threats associated with strong storms will be hail, strong
winds, and possible isolated tornadoes. Potential for convection
to develop along the Florida coastline in association with the
east coast sea breeze which will remain pinned very close the
shoreline through today due to westerly flow. Convection will
become more dispersed over southeast Georgia overnight and into
early Tuesday morning, however chances for showers and storms will
increase over northeast Florida during this time as developments
build ahead of the stalled frontal boundary. Near record level
high temperatures are possible today with max temps rising into
the upper 90s and possibly reaching as high as 100 degrees over
inland areas with high temperatures along the coast reaching into
the mid 90s. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the
into the lower to mid 70s for inland areas and in the mid to upper
70s for areas near the shoreline and along the St Johns River.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 225 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

A weakening frontal boundary will linger across the I-10 corridor
Tuesday into Wednesday before gradually shifting southward into
north-central FL Wednesday night. Meanwhile, trough axis over the
eastern seaboard will advect mid-level drier air (PWATs < 1 in.)
from the west-northwest on Tuesday. This will confine rain chances
to mainly NE FL on Tuesday where the better low-level moisture
(PWATs 1.5-2 in.) is and the sea breezes converge with the frontal
boundary. SW flow ahead of the frontal boundary will work to bring
tropical moisture (PWATs ~2 in.) northward into NE FL and SE GA.
Rain chances return to SE GA on Wednesday with the increase in
moisture. Daytime temperature highs will begin to trend a bit
lower as showers and cloud cover will keep the heat at bay, but
highs are still expected to be in the lower 90s for both Tuesday
and Wednesday. Overnight lows will sit in the lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 225 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Unsettled and rainy pattern continues through the end of the week.
The frontal boundary over north-central FL will remain stalled
across north-central FL through Friday. The best moisture will be
along and south of the boundary. Deeper tropical moisture (PWATs
2+ in.) advects northward into the weekend as upper level impulses
across the Gulf will lift the boundary into the I-10 corridor.
Showers and storms are expected each day with the best chances
across north-central FL. With the juicy airmass, multiple rounds
of heavy rainfall will be possible into the weekend. A Marginal
risk for excessive rainfall has been placed by the WPC for our
north central FL counties. Highs will begin in the low-mid 90s
during the latter half of the week, dropping to around 90 across
most of the local area by the end of the weekend. Temperature lows
expected to sit in the lower to mid 70s from late this week into
the upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 205 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Initially VFR conditions will eventually give way for showers and
thunderstorms for SSI this afternoon as convection builds in over
SE GA ahead of the advancing frontal boundary with a potential for
widely scattered strong to severe storms. Possible convection
occurring in conjunction with the daytime sea breeze at around 21z
forming over coastal areas of NE FL and potentially affecting SGJ
this afternoon. Prevailing surface winds will continue to be out
of the SW-W through the afternoon with the diurnal coastal sea
breeze staying close to the coast. Conditions will clear for GA
overnight, however there is still a potential for developments
over SGJ and GNV through Tuesday morning as convection develops
ahead of the stalled frontal boundary.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

A frontal boundary over the southeastern states will move
southward, stalling over the Georgia waters tonight. Strong to
severe thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon and
early this evening, mainly closer to the frontal boundary over the
Georgia waters. Severe thunderstorms late this afternoon and early
this evening over the Georgia waters will be capable of producing
strong wind gusts, hail, waterspouts, and frequent lightning.
Waves of showers and thunderstorms will then overspread our local
waters from south to north on Tuesday and Wednesday as the frontal
boundary remains stalled over our region. Prevailing onshore winds
are expected late this week and into the weekend as weak low
pressure potentially develops over the Gulf of Mexico. Waves of
showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact our local waters
through the weekend.

Rip Currents: Prevailing offshore winds and low wave heights
should keep the rip current risk low at all area beaches through
Tuesday. Prevailing onshore winds developing on Wednesday should
result in a moderate risk at area beaches by late this week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 412 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Record high temperatures at official local climate sites today:

         June 10
                ----------
Jacksonville     100/1954
Gainesville      99/1899
Alma, GA         103/1954
Craig Airport    99/2006

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  71  92  70  92 /  60  10  10  30
SSI  77  89  77  87 /  70  20  20  50
JAX  73  93  74  91 /  20  50  20  60
SGJ  76  91  74  90 /  30  40  30  70
GNV  73  92  72  91 /  20  60  50  80
OCF  73  90  72  90 /  50  60  50  80

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$