409
FXUS62 KJAX 091751
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
151 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 135 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Dry and a little warmer tonight with shallow inland ground fog
potential, mainly across NE FL near and south of the I-10
corridor. High pressure begins to nudge south of the local area as
a trough deepens across the eastern CONUS. Expect increasing mid
and high clouds from the NW overnight over SE GA while mostly
clear skies continue across NE FL. With the approaching trough,
westerly winds will remain a little more elevated tonight (2-4
mph) bringing slightly warmer low temperatures compared to this
morning, ranging from the lower 70s inland to mid/upper 70s toward
the St. Johns River basin & Atlantic coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Frontal trough is expected to sink south into southern GA during the
day on Monday. An upper wave is forecast to move along this boundary
Monday afternoon and evening, which will help to promote higher
chances for convection, especially over SE GA. Lower chances will be
expected across NE FL on Monday, but combination of increasing
moisture, diurnal instability and sea breeze interactions will
result in convection. Another above normal day is expected on
Monday, with highs reaching the mid to upper 90s.

The frontal zone will lay out near the GA/FL line Monday night.
While convective chances will diminish during the evening due to
loss of diurnal heating, with the boundary still in place activity
may linger through the overnight. Lows in the lower 70s.

For Tuesday, the surface boundary will linger over area as it
weakens. At the same time a wave of moisture will move north
northeast across region as energy gathers over the Gulf. The
greatest chances for convection will be over NE FL, where it will
generally be a wet and stormy day. Once again, this activity could
linger through the night, especially for NE FL, which will be along
and south of the boundary. With the added cloud cover and rainfall,
highs will be a little lower, generally in the lower 90s. Lows in
the lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Long range model trends have changed over the last 24 hours. The
models had been focusing the moisture plume from a Gulf system over
region this period. The latest runs keep the plume over central to
southern FL for much of this period, with the Gulf low taking much
longer to develop and move further north. While daily convective
chances are expected this period, these chances and the overall
rainfall amounts will be lower in Todays forecast than yesterday.

Depending on which way the rainfall plume focuses temperatures will
be affected. With the current location, highs will generally be
within a few degrees of seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 131 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Prevailing VFR conditions today and dry weather expected at all
terminals. Diurnally enhanced cumulus will develop with bases 5-7
kft with mid and high clouds increase from the NW late afternoon
and overnight tonight.

Westerly winds increased into the 6-11 kt range with some gusts
near 15 kts with heating this afternoon. The east coast sea breeze
is pinned near the Atlantic coast as inland progression is delayed
by the stronger westerly flow today. Indicated SSE winds trailing
the east coast sea breeze at SSI, CRG and SGJ between 20-22z then
not reaching JAX/VQQ until 23-01z time frame where winds will more
likely go VRB.

Another round of shallow ground fog will be possible after 06z
tonight, mainly near GNV and VQQ. Will include MVFR after 09z for
VQQ given MAV, MET, NBH and SREF consensus. VFR after daybreak
with W winds increasing through 14-16z 7-11 kts. TSRA potential
approaches SSI late in the day (after 18z) Monday, outside of the
TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 135 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

A frontal boundary will move south into region on Monday, and
stall over area through Tuesday. A weak frontal zone will remain
over the region into next weekend as a plume of moisture rides over
area from energy expected to develop in the Gulf.

Rip Currents: Low through Monday

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 135 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Record high temperatures at official local climate sites:

       June 9       June 10
               --------------------------
Jacksonville   101/1872     100/1954
Gainesville    99/1907      99/1899
Alma, GA       99/1993      103/1954
Craig Airport  97/2006      99/2006

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  95  71  92 /  10  60  60  30
SSI  78  94  74  89 /   0  60  60  60
JAX  73  99  73  94 /   0  40  30  70
SGJ  75  98  74  93 /   0  30  40  80
GNV  71  97  72  94 /   0  20  30  80
OCF  71  96  73  92 /   0  30  40  80

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$