370
FXUS62 KJAX 030202
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1002 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New UPDATE, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1003 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Late evening surface analysis depicts Atlantic high pressure (1023
millibars) centered near Bermuda, with this feature extending its
axis westward across our region. Meanwhile, a wavy stationary
boundary extends from eastern portions of the Great Lakes south-
southwestward across the Ohio, Tennessee, and Mid-Mississippi
Valleys. Aloft...a weak shortwave trough was progressing eastward
across southern portions of the Appalachians, with ridging located
over Mexico and the Bay of Campeche (southwestern Gulf of Mexico).
This weather pattern was creating northwesterly flow aloft across
our region. Otherwise, a more potent shortwave trough was
progressing slowly eastward across the Southern Plains states.
Isolated showers that developed along the inland moving Atlantic
sea breeze boundary are dissipating late this evening over the
Okefenokee Swamp, with mostly mid and high altitude debris clouds
from upstream convection gradually diminishing in coverage across
our region. Temperatures at 02Z were generally in the 75-80 degree
range across our area, with dewpoints mostly in the 60s.

Mid and high altitude debris cloudiness should continue to
gradually dissipate overnight, with convergent onshore flow
expected to advect some stratocumulus onshore along portions of
the northeast FL coast overnight. An isolated coastal shower or
two cannot be ruled out during the predawn and early morning hours
for locations from St. Augustine southward. Clearing skies and
decoupling winds at inland locations should allow lows to fall to
the mid and upper 60s, with a light south-southeasterly breeze
keeping coastal lows in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 236 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Similar set up forecast for Monday and Tuesday as broad low level
ridging builds across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico Monday and
then shifts over Florida Tuesday creating a relatively stagnant
flow. High temperatures will be in the mid 80s to lower 90s, with
the east coast staying a bit cooler than inland with help from the
sea breeze filling in both afternoons. PWATs will rise above
1.5", allowing for scattered to numerous showers area-wide, with
higher chances for thunderstorms in the afternoons as sea breezes
interact.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 236 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

The east coast will heat up Thursday as winds shift
southwesterly, preventing the Atlantic sea breeze from filling in,
highs along the immediate coast will be able to soar into the
lower to mid 90s Thursday through the weekend. Apparent
temperatures will be able to reach the upper 90s to lower 100s for
most of NE FL. With increased moisture and diurnal heating, daily
isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be able to fire up area-
wide during this period. A front will be approaching from the
northwest late this week, however there is still a lot of
uncertainty with its track and impacts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 804 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Periods of MVFR visibilities will be possible overnight at VQQ.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals.
Brief periods of MVFR ceilings will be possible on Monday morning,
with a brief shower possibly moving onshore from the Atlantic
waters over the SSI and SGJ coastal terminals and the Duval
County terminals, but confidence was only high enough to include
vicinity showers at this time. Widely scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop along the inland
moving Atlantic sea breeze boundary on Monday afternoon, mainly
for locations along and west of the U.S. Highway 301 corridor
after 17Z. This activity could impact GNV, but enough uncertainty
with regards to coverage and intensity remains for nothing more
than vicinity shower coverage to be included at the inland
terminals at this time. Activity could linger around GNV past
sunset on Monday evening, with VFR conditions otherwise expected
to continue at the regional terminals. Southeasterly surface winds
sustained around 10 knots early this evening will gradually
diminish overnight. Southerly surface winds will then increase to
around 5 knots after sunrise, followed by winds shifting to east-
southeasterly and increasing to around 10 knots by 19Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1003 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Atlantic high pressure centered near Bermuda will continue to
extend its axis westward across our local waters while gradually
weakening through midweek. This feature will keep a prevailing
southeast to southerly flow across our local waters, with wind
surges taking place during the late afternoon and evening hours.
Speeds should remain just below Caution levels during these late
afternoon and evening wind surges, and seas of 2 to 4 feet will
prevail both near shore and offshore throughout the week.

Only isolated showers and possibly a few thunderstorms are
expected to develop across our local waters early this week. The
axis of Atlantic high pressure will then shift south of our local
waters late this week as a cold front pushes into the southeastern
states. Prevailing west- southwesterly winds late this week could
push scattered showers and thunderstorms across our local waters
ahead of this approaching front, which is slated to cross our
region late Friday night or Saturday.

Rip Currents: Persistent onshore winds and elevated seas will keep
a moderate rip current risk in place at all area beaches on
Monday. Diminishing wave heights may drop the risk to low at the
southeast GA beaches on Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1003 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

South-southeasterly surface and transport winds on Monday morning
will shift to east-southeasterly for locations west of U.S.
Highway 301 during the afternoon hours, with breezy surface winds
developing along the I-95 corridor. Fair to good daytime
dispersion values are forecast for locations east of U.S.-301,
while lighter transport speeds will result in generally poor
daytime dispersion values for inland southeast GA and for
locations along and west of I-75. A similar weather pattern will
prevail on Tuesday, with elevated mixing heights resulting in fair
to good daytime dispersion values. Gradually increasing afternoon
temperatures will result in minimum relative humidity values of
35-40 percent at most inland locations on Monday and Tuesday.
Surface and transport winds will shift to southwesterly for inland
locations on Wednesday, with elevated mixing heights creating
generally good daytime dispersion values.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1003 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Water levels will continue to gradually fall along lower portions
of the Santa Fe River, with minor flooding expected to continue
near the gauge at Three Rivers Estates into next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  66  91  68  92 /  30  30  20  50
SSI  74  87  74  89 /  10  20  10  20
JAX  67  89  67  91 /  10  20  10  30
SGJ  72  87  73  89 /  10  20  10  20
GNV  67  91  68  93 /  10  40  30  50
OCF  68  92  68  94 /  20  40  30  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$