Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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511 FXUS62 KJAX 202358 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 758 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... Issued at 157 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Rest of this afternoon/evening...Breezy northeast flow will continue scattered showers along the NE FL Atlantic Coastal counties with isolated thunderstorm potential over inland NE FL during peak heating into the middle 80s, but overall rainfall and storm threat remains on the low side and will quickly fade around sunset. Tonight...As Northeast flow weakens slowly, this will allow for skies to clear over inland areas with with a slight chance of a shower along the coast through the night. Mostly skies are expected overnight with lows in the lower/middle 60s inland with patchy fog possible towards sunrise, while lows in the upper 60s expected along the coast. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 157 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 High pressure near the Mid Atlantic Coast will continue to wedge ridging southwestward across most of the region Tuesday, as a very slow moving upper low lingers well offshore. This will continue an onshore flow pattern for Tuesday, and therefore another round of isolated to scattered showers moving onshore. Since the low will nudge further east compared to today, expecting chances for showers and perhaps an isolated rumble of thunder to be confined to areas furthest south and east. Though a few sprinkles cannot be ruled out as far north as coastal southeast GA. High temps will remain below average towards the coast in the low to mid 80s, as inland areas moderate to the mid to upper 80s. Onshore flow drops off overnight Tuesday with lows closer to normal expected, generally low to mid 60s and closer to 70 by the coast. The aforementioned upper low continues to pinwheel further offshore Wednesday and Wednesday Night as high pressure ridging starts to build more aloft in addition to surface ridging, therefore expecting this period to remain dry. Cannot fully rule out an isolated shower to pop up diurnally over inland northeast FL during the afternoon and evening given some lingering onshore flow and low level moisture. However, given the subsidence in place, chances for this will be very low (around 10% or less). Highs start to moderate closer to normal on Wednesday, in the upper 80s to low 90s except for near the coast. MAinly clear and dry into Wednesday Night as well with lows generally in the mid to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 157 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Not much change to the pattern for Thursday and into Friday as high pressure ridging persists and high temps continue to moderate towards near to slightly above normal. A shortwave trough moves across the area on Friday Night and Saturday, which returns chances for showers and thunderstorms, though does not look like a significant event at this time. Surface high pressure moves offshore late this weekend as a more zonal pattern aloft also looks to take shape, with a more seabreeze shower/t`storm type of pattern likely. Temps are expected to remain slightly above normal for the start of Memorial Day weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 758 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Breezy northeast winds decrease by 02Z to sustained 10 kts for coastal sites and light and variable for inland sites. Patchy MVFR swamp fog will be possible in the pre-dawn hours for VQQ. Northeast winds quickly increase after 14Z with sustained 8-13 kt and gusts around 15-20 kts. MVFR ceilings will likely advect to CRG/SGJ in the mid-late morning hours. A shower may pass by SGJ between 14-18Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 157 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Brisk northeasterly flow continues through this evening as high pressure ridging continues to build in. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all waters through 8 PM. This flow regime will weaken Tuesday, with persistent high pressure ridging persisting through mid to late week thereafter. Rip Currents: Moderate to High risk of rip currents expected the rest of Today and into Tuesday as gusty onshore flow continues through tonight and slowly subsides on Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 61 87 62 89 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 69 80 70 83 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 64 83 67 87 / 0 0 0 10 SGJ 67 83 70 85 / 0 20 0 10 GNV 62 86 65 90 / 10 10 0 10 OCF 63 88 67 91 / 0 20 0 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ124-125- 133-138. GA...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ154-166. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ450-452- 454-470-472-474. && $$