322
FXUS62 KJAX 261835
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
235 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 235 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

There is a slight chance for showers along the I-95 corridor later
this afternoon; however, thunderstorm risk is low given the combo
effect of increasing subsidence and a drying airmass aloft.
Temperatures continue to push into the low 90s with heat index
values peaking around 99-103F over the next couple hours.

Tonight, skies will clear and allow temps to fall into the upper 60s
to low 70s inland. Along the coast and St Johns River, temps will be
a bit warmer with lows in the mid 70s. Patchy to areas of fog will
be possible inland where winds calm. Possible that localized dense
fog develops across the lower Suwannee Valley and I-75 corridor late
tonight.&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 235 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024

As an upper level ridge shifts out of the area, troughing
extending from the Great Lakes will bring a cold front into the
area from the northwest. Ahead of the front, southwest- west
steering flow will be in place, which should keep the Atlantic
sea breeze in check along the east coast Monday. Come late Monday
afternoon, chance of showers and storms will increase ahead of the
cold front, spreading from northern SE GA counties towards the
FL/GA border. With enough instability, as CAPE values will be near
1000 J/kg, along with decent deep layer shear will lead to a
favorable environment for wet microbursts, with gusts potentially
up to 40 to 50 mph for any storms that do develop. On Tuesday the
cold front will make its way through the area, bringing scattered
showers and storms along the front as it moves from SE GA into NE
FL.

With little cool air moving in the from the Atlantic, afternoon
temperatures are expected to remain in the 90s, warmest
temperatures expected along the I-95 corridor, particularly south
of the JAX metro. Heat Index values will get close to 100 degrees.
The same trend in temperature is expected to continue Tuesday
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 235 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024

By Wednesday the front will be sitting over central FL, bringing
chances of showers and storms for locations south of the I-10
corridor. On Thursday and Friday, the front looks to lift
northward as a warm front, bringing an increase in showers and
storms from NE FL and into SE GA during the afternoon each day.

A `cooling` trend begins as high pressure builds in from the
northwest on Wednesday after the cold front`s passage. Morning
lows in the 60s for the latter half of next week. Highs will begin
in the 90s across the area on Wednesday and begin to trend
downward as Highs will get into the upper 80s for SE GA and the
lower 90s in NE FL from Thursday and into next weekend.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 147 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024

VFR skies with a broad afternoon cumulus field established.
Potential exists for isolated showers along the sea breeze
generally west of I-95 late this afternoon. Any shower activity
should fade quickly by sunset or shortly after. Atlantic sea
breeze will push inland across area TAF sites, except KGNV this
afternoon. Low stratus and patchy fog development is possible,
mainly inland and could impact flight conditions at KVQQ and KGNV
around dawn Monday. VFR conditions and southwesterly winds will
develop during the mid morning Monday and pin the sea breeze
closer to the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 235 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024

Tranquil boating conditions are expected through the weekend with
high pressure in the area and prevailing offshore flow. Afternoon
sea breeze development is anticipated each afternoon. The main
concern will be the potential for thunderstorms mainly during the
early evening hours tonight which could contain strong winds.
Storm chances lessen Sunday and Monday before being renewed by an
incoming cold front Tuesday.

Rip currents: Moderate risk through Monday, primarily during the
afternoon as the Atlantic sea breeze develops.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

Moderate river flooding is still forecast toward the end of next
week. The Satilla River basin remains in Minor Flood stage at
Atkinson and portions of the Suwannee are expected into Minor
Flood stage by early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  71  92  71  91 /   0  30  50  20
SSI  73  91  73  90 /   0  10  50  20
JAX  71  95  73  93 /   0   0  30  40
SGJ  71  94  73  91 /   0   0  20  40
GNV  67  94  72  93 /   0   0  10  50
OCF  69  93  72  93 /   0   0  10  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$