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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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928 FXUS62 KJAX 261437 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1037 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1033 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024 No major forecast updates this morning. Slight chance for rain was broadened along the I-95 corridor late this afternoon; however, thunderstorm risk is low given the combo effect of increasing subsidence and a drying airmass aloft. Despite the less favorable atmosphere, enough low level moisture will be available to squeeze out a few showers along the colliding sea breezes, generally along and west of the the St Johns River/I-95 corridor. Temperatures will be as hot as yesterday with a few locations adding another degrees or two to make a push into the mid 90s. Heat index will peak around 99-103F this afternoon. For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf && .NEAR TERM... (Today through Tonight) Issued at 245 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf With calm winds and clear skies, patchy to areas of fog expected early this morning, especially over inland southeast GA. Fog should dissipate by about 8 AM. Weak surface high pressure ridge will continue to stay south of the area today while drifting south. Aloft, increased mid to upper level ridging builds in from the west. For Today, mostly sunny to occasional partly cloudy skies and above seasonal temps (about 6 deg above) in the lower to mid 90s are expected. Record high is possible at Craig Airport today. Heat indices will rise to about 100-102 in several areas, mainly eastern zones. There appears to be enough moisture, with PWATS near 1.6 inches, over the eastern zones later this afternoon and early evening for isolated showers and storms. This convection should be relatively brief given the convection will be hindered by dry air aloft. Main area of POPs near 15-20 percent is just west of I-95 to about Highway 301 and timing from about 4 PM to 9 PM. This latter area is where the Atlantic sea breeze is expected to push inland late today. Tonight, an isolated shower or storm in the evening as mentioned above but otherwise becoming mostly clear overnight. Possibly a greater chance of patchy fog over the south and western zones, as well as low stratus, mainly based on HREF guidance. Low in the upper 60s to lower 70s anticipated. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 245 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024 Ridging extending across the GOMEX sinks southward as troughing swings through the Great Lakes pushing a surface cold front through the Deep South. Southwesterly flow develops ahead of the front keeping the Atlantic sea breeze pinned to the coast. This will allow for hot temperatures to extend all the way to the beaches. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s with heat indices around 100 degrees with the highest daytime temperatures focused along the I-95 corridor each afternoon. Lingering subsidence and mid-level dry air will help limit convection across much of the area on Monday. Pre- frontal showers and storms will attempt to move into inland SE GA late Monday afternoon into evening. Mid-level dry air will yield DCAPE values around 1,000 J/kg combined with ample instability and decent deep layer shear creating an environment favorable for wet microbursts. Convection that survives could be strong and capable of producing gusty winds (40-50 mph). The cold front moves into SE GA late Monday night and shifts into NE FL Tuesday morning. On Tuesday, convection will likely be confined to the frontal boundary and its interactions along the sea breezes as the front shifts into central FL by Tuesday night. Dynamics don`t look as impressive as previous model runs but a stronger storm could be possible along boundary interactions. Drier and "cooler" air filters into the area as northwest flow develops in the wake of the front. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 245 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024 The front then shifts into central FL on Wednesday and stalls Thursday into Friday focusing convection to areas mainly south of I- 10. Drier and `cooler` air remains over SE GA in the wake of the front as a high pressure builds to the northwest of the region. The drier air mass will bring a return of cool morning lows in the 60s for the latter half of next week. Highs will then range from the upper 80s in SE GA to the low 90s in north-central FL. && .AVIATION...(12Z TAFS) Issued at 746 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024 Pockets of morning fog will erode quickly and be followed by VFR conditions as diurnal cumulus builds through the afternoon. Storm chances today will be lower today but vicinity showers are still possible particularly along and west of I-95 where sea breezes will merge late this afternoon. During the predawn hours Memorial Day a bed of low stratus will build from the Gulf eastward. Still uncertainty if it will reach JAX. Best chances, around 40%, for LIFR ceilings will be west of JAX and along I-75 (KGNV). Atlantic sea breeze will push into coastal sites around 8-12 kts through the afternoon, otherwise winds will be light through the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 245 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024 Fairly benign weather for the marine zones with winds of less than 15 kt and seas of less than 3 ft. However, some guidance suggests sustained 15 kt south winds by tonight, just off the coast, given the fairly strong land/sea temp gradient across the area. Does not look like Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) is met at this time. A similar setup in winds Monday night. Another chance of t-storms moving into the area waters from the northwest by Monday evening so boaters will need to be aware of that. A weak cool front moves into the area Tuesday and Wednesday and stalls to our south mid week. At this time no advisory or exercise caution looks likely. Rip Currents: Seas at nearshore buoys are just below 2 ft and will be close to that most of the day. Dominant wave periods of about 7-9 seconds. Onshore flow may still support a low-end moderate rip current risk for northeast FL beaches today, while a low risk is placed in for southeast GA beaches. Little overall change in sea state on Monday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 230 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024 Moderate river flooding is still forecast toward the end of next week. The Satilla River basin remains in Minor Flood stage at Atkinson and portions of the Suwannee are expected into Minor Flood stage by early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 94 71 92 72 / 10 0 20 40 SSI 90 73 91 72 / 10 0 10 30 JAX 95 71 94 72 / 20 0 0 20 SGJ 93 71 94 73 / 10 0 0 20 GNV 94 67 93 70 / 10 0 0 10 OCF 95 69 93 72 / 10 0 0 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$