689
FXUS62 KJAX 201647
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1247 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 905 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Surge of North to Northeast winds behind cool frontal passage
along the SE GA/NE FL coastal areas slightly stronger than
expected and local buoys already have sustained winds close to 20
knots and seas already at 5-6 feet, so have posted Small Craft
Advisory for the coastal waters and have posted High Rip Current
Risk as well ending this evening as the NE Flow slowly fades
tonight. Otherwise remainder of forecast on track with scattered
showers along the NE FL coastal counties which are expected to
spread inland through the afternoon hours to the I-75 corridor
near GNV/OCF vicinity. A slight chance of a thunderstorm to pop-up
with this activity, but storm chances remain around 10% or less
and severe weather is not expected. Max temps cooler than over the
weekend with highs in the lower 80s near the coast/I-95 corridor
and into the middle 80s over inland areas as the current mostly
cloudy skies become partly sunny by the mid-late afternoon. Breezy
coastal conditions will continue today at 15-20G25-30 mph with
lesser NE winds inland at 10-15G20 mph at times. Rainfall chances
end at sunset over inland areas, with a slight chance of a shower
along the coast through the night. Clearing skies are expected
overnight with lows in the lower/middle 60s inland with patchy fog
possible towards sunrise, while lows in the upper 60s expected
along the coast.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

A few light showers continue to move south along the coast from
near Fernandina beach towards Mayport and Ponte Vedra Beach with
low stratus advecting in from the north on the back side of a weak
low pinwheeling northeast of the Georgia waters that pushed a
cold front south of the area overnight. Low clouds are keeping our
temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s which should cool only
a couple more degrees as dewpoints hold in the mid 60s inland to
upper 60s at the coast.

A "Z" like pattern in the mid to upper levels over the eastern
third of the country will promote ridging over the Mid Atlantic
and northeast states today while a short, compact trough will
elongate over the western Atlantic waters west of Bermuda. High
pressure will build from the Mid Atlantic coast as surface low
offshore spins slowly away to the east. Drier air aloft will sink
across the area with isolated to widely scattered showers shifting
south and west from the Jacksonville Metro area this morning into
interior NE FL midday and then north central FL this afternoon
with an isolated thunderstorm possible south of I-10, but not
expecting strong or severe storms due to influence of the drier,
cooler airmass that will limit high temperatures to the low 80s
along the coast and mid 80s inland. Mostly clouds skies and low
stratus east of highway 301 this morning will turn partly cloudy
this afternoon, then skies will become clear around sunset from
north to south with breezy northeast winds 10-15 mph and gusting
to 25 mph over the coastal communities. With clear skies tonight,
lows will be near normal in the low to mid 60s with upper 60s to
around 70 at the beachfront.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Onshore flow pattern could support a few coastal showers expanding
inland over ne FL during the afternoon. By Wed, upper ridging
builds over forecast area supporting a drier pattern across
forecast area and initiating a warming trend. High temperatures
will be in the 80-85 range across the forecast area Tuesday,
warmer values interior areas, and will rise to the lower-mid 80s
east, upper 80s west, on Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Upper ridge of high pressure will remain over the forecast area
through Friday, with a continued warming trend. High temperatures
Thursday and Friday will be in the mid-upper 80s coast, lower-mid
90s well inland, a little above normal.

A weak shortwave trough will move across GA and the Carolinas
Saturday which could bring scattered showers and a few t-storms
across the area, with a slightly better chance N than S. By
Sunday, a few sea breeze showers/t-storms are possible during the
afternoon. The weekend will feature somewhat above normal
temperatures, with high temperatures both days in the upper 80s
immediate coast, lower 90s further inland, with mid 90s possible
in a few areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

A few brief MVFR CIGS leftover at NE FL TAF sites until the 19-21Z
time frame as isolated showers (VCSH) continue, but will fade
quickly in the 21-24Z time frame towards sunset with conds
becoming VFR at all TAF sites with decreasing NE winds and skies
becoming mostly clear. Cooler overnight lows in the 60s inland
will support some patchy MVFR fog at VQQ/GNV around sunrise,
otherwise expect some brief MVFR CIGS at coastal TAF sites during
the mid-late morning diurnal heating hours as NE winds slowly
increase in the 13-16Z time frame, but might be too early to
introduce with this TAF package.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

High pressure will build along the Mid Atlantic coast today into
Tuesday with breezy onshore northeasterly flow. High pressure will
then build directly over the waters Wednesday through the end of
the week with east to southeasterly winds as the Atlantic seabreeze
develops each afternoon.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents at all area beaches
today in the onshore northeast flow. A moderate risk expected on
Tuesday for all area beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  84  61  86  63 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  78  69  79  70 /  20   0   0   0
JAX  81  64  83  67 /  30   0  20   0
SGJ  81  67  82  70 /  30  10  30   0
GNV  84  62  87  64 /  40   0  40   0
OCF  87  63  89  67 /  30   0  40   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ124-125-
     133-138.

GA...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ154-166.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ450-452-
     454-470-472-474.

&&

$$