Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 251444
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1044 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017

.UPDATE...

Belt of deep, rich moisture across the Gulf coast states extends
eastward into southeast Georgia where PWATS are 2+ inches.
Significantly drier airmass (PWATS 1.5 or less) over portions of
the Gulf of Mexico will nose into our southern zones today, along
and south of a line from Gainesville to St Augustine.

Overall convective pattern will be similar to yesterday with
prevailing west southwesterly flow keeping the Atlantic seabreeze
close to the shoreline. Numerous to widespread storms are expected
across southeast Georgia and the Suwannee Valley of northeast
Florida today into this evening. Very little if any activity is
expected south of a line from Gainesville to St Augustine.
Scattered showers/storms are expected in between these two areas.

Locally heavy rainfall is expected across southeast Georgia and
portions of the Suwannee Valley of northeast Florida today.
Widespread rainfall amounts of around an inch are expected across
much of southeast Georgia as several rounds of thunderstorms are
expected through this evening. Localized much higher amounts can
be expected where storms train across the same areas. Some
localized strong gusty winds will also be possible across
southeast Georgia due to wet microburst potential.

Another hot and humid day is in store for most areas. Main update
was to increase max temps a couple of degrees, particularly along
and just west of the I-95 corridor in northeast Florida, which is
where the hottest temps are expected today.

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorms not expected to affect GNV and SGJ today due to
drier airmass. Numerous storms expected across southeast Georgia
and have kept TSRA at SSI later this afternoon with a PROB30 group
of gusty winds and IFR conditions late this afternoon at SSI.
Thunderstorms will be more widely scattered this afternoon across
the Jacksonville area so we will keep thunderstorms out of the
Duval county TAF sites for now. If storms do happen to impact any
of the Duval county TAF sites, they should be relatively short
lived as they move steadily eastward and offshore.

&&

.MARINE...

Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots this morning will become south
southeast 10 to 15 knots this afternoon behind the seabreeze.
Seas will average 2 to 3 feet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  89  74  89  73 /  80  30  80  40
SSI  90  77  87  79 /  80  50  70  60
JAX  93  76  91  75 /  50  30  70  50
SGJ  93  77  91  79 /  30  10  50  40
GNV  94  75  92  73 /  20  10  30  30
OCF  93  75  93  74 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Shuler/Cordero/



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