Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 200655

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
155 AM EST Tue Feb 20 2018

.NEAR TERM /Through Tonight/...

Low level moisture persists in the onshore flow pattern. The flow
Tonight will be more South of East, which will limit time in which
air flows over coolest coastal waters. So, expect best potential
for dense fog and stratus this morning over coastal region from
near KCRG to KSSI, then extend inland over SE GA. The stratus and
fog will be more patchy in nature elsewhere, with less chance for
dense fog.

High pressure ridge will be centered to the Northeast this period.
Morning fog and stratus will diminish late this morning, with
sunshine for the afternoon. Could be enough moisture convergence
and instability for a few showers far inland, but chance not high
enough for mention at this point. Temperatures will be well above
normal again this afternoon, with coolest readings along the
immediate coast.

Onshore flow pattern to continue Tonight, with mainly coastal fog

.SHORT TERM /Wednesday Through Thursday Night/...

Strong and deep ridge will remain east to northeast of the region,
southeast of the Carolina coast with the mid/upper ridge axis
extending over northeast Florida to the FL/GA border. Low level
southeasterly flow will prevail, and mainly dry and very warm
temperatures will continue. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s
inland, and the mid to upper 70s along the coast.

.LONG TERM /Friday Through Monday/...

Upper level high pressure will build westward and weaken over the
Florida peninsula Friday through the weekend in response to a
series of upper level shortwave moving through the middle of the
country. Mainly dry conditions will prevail Friday and Saturday,
although an isolated shower cannot be ruled. Very warm conditions
will continue with highs in the low to mid 80s, except mid to
upper 70s along the coast and lows near 60 to the mid 60s. A weak
frontal boundary may move into southeast Georgia late in the
weekend into early next week, leading to isolated to scattered
showers. Temperatures are hedged a few degrees cooler than earlier
in the period due to the chance of showers, but will still remain
well above normal. Models are hinting that a pattern change could
occur by the beginning of March, bringing in cooler temperatures,
but that is still 8-10 days away.


Stratus and fog are expected to develop Tonight, but are not
expected to be widespread or as dense as recent nights. However,
the potential for IFR and lower conditions still exists.
Conditions will trend toward VFR this afternoon. Fog and stratus
development will possible again Tonight.


High pressure ridge will be centered to the Northeast this week,
then to the East into the weekend. A front is expected forecast to
approach from the Northwest late in the weekend, as the high moves
more to the Southeast.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk through Wednesday.


AMG  81  65  83  62 /   0   0  10  10
SSI  74  62  75  61 /   0   0  10  10
JAX  80  65  83  61 /   0   0  10  10
SGJ  76  66  78  62 /   0   0  10  10
GNV  83  66  84  62 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  84  66  85  62 /  10   0   0   0




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