916
FXUS62 KJAX 240514
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
114 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 723 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

Main update this evening was the addition of isolated showers for
the next couple hours across the Suwannee Valley northward into
SE GA where east coast sea breeze and GOMEX sea breeze will
interact. Otherwise, as this early evening activity fades, skies
will trend mostly clear overnight aside from a few waves of cirrus
pushing through the dirty ridging aloft. Under the mostly clear
skies, the air will cool to the middle and upper 60s, except at
the coast where the lows will read closer to 70.

Persistence pattern holds tomorrow for the most part. However, a
shortwave will skid across the northern periphery of the ridge and
bring a slight chance of showers to areas near the Altamaha River
in SE GA. Additionally, spotty shower activity appears possible
with the sea breeze interaction across inland NE FL during the
late afternoon and early evening Friday. With the slower sea
breeze, temps will heat up reaching the low 90s inland.

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 202 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Flat ridging will continue to extend northeastward across our
region from the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, with a shortwave
trough expected to traverse the Tennessee Valley and the
southern Appalachians on Friday. A relatively weak surface
pressure pattern in place locally will allow the Gulf and
Atlantic sea breezes to develop this afternoon, progressing
inland and then colliding along the Interstate 75 corridor
towards sunset. There may be just enough low level moisture in
place to squeeze out an isolated shower or two along the I-75
corridor towards sunset, but a relatively dry and subsident air
mass will prevent sustained updrafts and will negate any chances
for thunderstorms later today and this evening.

Cirrus cloudiness emanating from upstream convection will continue
to thin as it enters the more subsident air mass in place over our
area through tonight. This subsident air mass may foster some
patchy fog formation during the predawn hours along the I-75
corridor and portions of inland southeast GA. Inland lows will fall
to the mid and upper 60s, ranging to the lower 70s at coastal
locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 202 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

High pressure ridge will sink to the south on Friday into Friday
night, as a 500mb trough moves southeast across SE GA. While much of
the area will be dry on Friday, a few showers and storms will be
possible over far northern forecast area counties.

For Saturday into Saturday night, the surface ridge will remain to
the south southeast of the area, while an upper trough is in
place over region. The combination of increasingly moist southwest
flow, sea breeze interactions, and upper waves moving through
could result in a few showers and storms Saturday afternoon into
night.

Temperatures will continue to run above normal this period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 202 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

The region will be between high pressure ridge to the southeast, and
a frontal zone to the northwest during the first half of this
period. This half of the period, will mainly be dry, but afternoon
convection can not be ruled out, largely due to sea breeze
interactions and upper waves.

The frontal zone is expected to sink southeast into area and stall
for Tuesday through Wednesday. This boundary will be a focus
mechanism for convective development. At this time, models depict
the boundary pushing through for Thursday, so better chance for
Thursday to be a dry day.

While temperatures will trend above normal throughout this period,
the warmest stretch will be during the first half of the period,
before the front arrives. A noticeable airmass change is expected
following the frontal passage, with Thursday not only a little
cooler, but with dewpoints falling into the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 108 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024

SCT-BKN high cirrus 200-250 kft and FEW-BKN 060-080 bases will
continue to pass over the terminals through daybreak. The best
chance of MVFR conditions between 7-11z will occur at VQQ where
TEMPO 3SM BR was maintained. SSE winds 3-7 kts will become more
SSW toward daybreak.

After sunrise, diurnally enhanced cumulus with bases 4.5-6 kft
will develop through the mid afternoon as sea breezes develop. A
more dominant west coast sea breeze today will bring a slower
moving inland east coast sea breeze across the coastal terminals
during the mid to later afternoon and then across JAX/VQQ into the
evening while prevailing SW flow continues at GNV.

Best chance of VCSH will occur near SSI after 21z and will
continue through 02z as a short wave trough passes overhead and
sea breeze convergence occurs just west of the terminal. Potential
for TS exists, but confidence not high enough to include in TAF at
this time. Farther south, NE FL terminals have about a 15% chance
of mainly evening showers and possibly a lone TS. With drier mid
level air, confidence still not high enough to include in VCSH in
TAFs yet.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 202 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

High pressure ridge will drift south southeast of the region
through Friday. The region will be between the ridge to the south
southeast, and an approaching frontal system late in the weekend
into early next week. The frontal zone will move southeast into
the area and stall Tuesday into Wednesday, before passing through
Thursday.

Rip Currents: Moderate through Friday

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  91  70  93  71 /  10  10  20  10
SSI  87  73  90  73 /  10  10  20  20
JAX  93  70  94  71 /  10   0  20  10
SGJ  90  71  92  72 /   0   0  20  20
GNV  93  67  93  69 /  10   0  20   0
OCF  93  68  93  70 /   0   0  20   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$