972
FXUS62 KJAX 221811
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
211 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 201 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Rest of this afternoon/evening...East to Southeast steering flow
around the high pressure centered over the GA/SC region is combining
with PWATs around 1.25 inches and an inland moving East Coast sea
breeze to produce a few small pop-up isolated showers that will
continue across inland areas through the afternoon hours, mainly
across SE GA. For now most of the activity is just sprinkles and
measurable rainfall chances remain at 20% or less through sunset.
Activity not expected to become deep enough to produce any
thunderstorm activity.

Tonight...Skies to become mostly clear once again after sunset and
while not expected to become as cool as previous nights, still
expect near normal lows in the mid/upper 60s inland and lower 70s
along the Atlantic Coast. Temps to cool enough over inland areas
to produce some patchy fog around sunrise Thursday morning, but
not expecting to see the amount of locally dense fog as this
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Saturday night)
Issued at 201 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

A high pressure ridge will extend across the area Thursday and
Thursday night, from a high center to the northeast. Subsidence
under the ridge will lead to dry weather.

The ridge will begin to sink to the southeast Friday into Friday
night. A 500mb trough is expected to move across southern GA late
Friday into Friday night. This feature could result in a few showers
and storms over northern forecast area. In addition, an increase in
cloud coverage will be expected late in the day Friday through
Friday night, especially over SE GA is forecast.

Weak surface ridge will remain to the southeast Saturday through
Saturday night. An upper short wave is expected to move southeast
into area Saturday afternoon, then across region through Saturday
night. This feature, coupled with sea breeze boundary interactions
will yield a chance for storms across forecast area.

Temperatures will trend above normal throughout this period, but
warmest days will be Friday and Saturday due to warm advection on
Southwest flow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 201 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

The region will be between high pressure ridge to the southeast and
an approaching front to the northwest Sunday into Monday. The
frontal boundary will move into the region and stall Tuesday into
Wednesday. Waves are expected to move along this boundary. The
greatest chances for showers and storms will be Tuesday and
Wednesday, due to the frontal zone.

Temperatures will trend above normal through Tuesday, then be closer
to normal Wednesday due to front.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

Morning diurnal Cumulus development has lifted to VFR levels at
all TAF sites and expect this to continue through the rest of the
afternoon hours with rainfall chances remaining too low (below 20
percent) to include in the TAF forecasts. Main impacts late
tonight will be fog chances at inland TAF sites with likely MVFR
vsbys at VQQ from 07-11Z and possible MVFR vsbys at JAX/GNV around
sunrise (09-11Z) Thursday morning. This will be followed by low
chances of another round of brief MVFR CIGS from 13-15Z at all TAF
sites Thursday morning, but these probs remain less than 30% for
now and will just continue a SCT cloud deck in the 1500-2500 ft
range.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 201 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

Weak Onshore flow will continue to fade through the end of the
week as high pressure ridge builds south over the local waters and
expect diurnal sea breeze cycle to dominate the mostly dry
weather pattern. The ridge axis will builds south of the local
waters over the weekend and produce a more offshore flow and keep
the sea breeze pinned closer to the Atlantic Coast. Thunderstorm
chances will increase slightly, but mainly just isolated over the
weekend with more scattered storm activity early next week as the
next frontal boundary approaches the region from the Northwest and
continue to increase the offshore flow closer to SCEC or
potential SCA levels.

Rip Currents/Coastal Flooding: Moderate risk of rip currents will
continue through Thursday in the weak onshore flow. The approach
of the full moon on Thursday has also brought up water levels
along the Atlantic Coast and St. Johns River Basin to Action
stage, but with the weakening onshore flow, not expecting to reach
Minor Flooding at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  66  92  69  92 /  10  10   0  10
SSI  71  85  72  89 /   0   0   0  20
JAX  67  90  69  93 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  68  87  69  91 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  65  92  67  93 /   0  10   0  10
OCF  66  93  69  93 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$