636
FXUS62 KJAX 190015
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
815 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 816 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals through at
least 03Z. The next round of showers and embedded thunderstorms is
expected to push across our region during the overnight hours,
mainly from around 04Z through 09Z. Confidence was high enough to
include vicinity thunderstorms and an MVFR TEMPO group for heavier
showers at SSI from 05Z through 08Z. Confidence was only high
enough to include vicinity showers elsewhere overnight. VFR
conditions should then prevail by 10Z area-wide. Showers and
thunderstorms will redevelop over our region late on Sunday
afternoon, mainly for locations along and east of U.S. Highway
301, with activity generally progressing south-southeastward into
the early evening hours. A few stronger storms will be possible
after 21Z along the I-95 corridor. We included PROB30 groups for
gusty winds and MVFR conditions during heavier downpours at all
terminals except GNV from 19Z-00Z. Confidence was only high enough
for vicinity thunderstorm coverage at GNV. Southerly surface winds
sustained at 5-10 knots this evening will shift to southwesterly
overnight, with speeds diminishing to around 5 knots by 06Z.
Surface winds will continue to veer to westerly after sunrise,
with speeds increasing to around 10 knots by 14Z. A pinned
Atlantic sea breeze boundary east of I-95 may shift surface winds
to southerly at the SSI and SGJ coastal terminals towards 20Z
before thunderstorm activity increases on Sunday afternoon and
evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 310 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

Numerous showers and storms expected into rest of the afternoon
and early evening along and ahead of a weak cool front. The main
area of concern for heavy rainfall and potentially severe storms,
given the favorable wind fields, is over the central and southeast
parts of the area where the airmass has generally been untapped
thus far. There appears to be a couple of limiting factors to more
robust storm activity, which are frontal forcing closely
paralleled to mid to upper level flow and somewhat weak lapse
rates aloft. The low level convergence also is not particularly
impressive, except where outflow propagates more due to southward.
Still, given the effective bulk shear of 40-50 kt and more than
ample MLCAPE of about 2500 J/kg, a few briefly severe storms are
possible. The main threat is strong to severe wind gusts, and
lower probability of isolated large hail and possibly a brief
tornado.

By the evening hours, scattered shower activity and a couple
storms anticipated for southeast GA but scattered to numerous
showers and possibly scattered storms expected over northeast FL.
Generally anticipate any severe threat is limited and low
probability by mid evening with perhaps the stronger storms over
the coastal waters. After midnight, chance of showers and slight
chances of storms will persist as the remaining low level moisture
and shortwave forcing aloft is enough to maintain chances of
further convection. Min temps will be muggy in the upper 60s to
lower 70s with southwest winds of 5-10 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 310 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

A cold front will be draped along the southern counties of NE FL
on Sunday, with showers and storm chances remaining across the
area as another cold front moves in from the north as an upper
level trough begins to shift off towards the Atlantic. Most of NE
FL is currently under a Marginal Risk (1 out of 5) for Severe
Storms on Sunday. Current models are suggesting CAPE values from
1500-2500 J/KG, this along with westerly shear will keep the
potential for scattered storms developing mainly along the stalled
cold front in NE FL. Main concerns for any storms that do develop
will be strong winds, small hail, and low chances for tornadoes.
By the evening, activity will begin to dwindle during the
overnight hours.

High pressure moving into the area from the north-northeast will
bring northeasterly winds into the area on Monday. Some showers
and isolated storms may develop as the sea breeze moves inland
through the afternoon, waning by the evening.

Daytime highs on Sunday will primarily rest in the mid 80s in SE
GA with warmer temperatures in the upper 80s for NE FL, but
cooler temperatures along north central Florida counties. By
Monday, most locations will see temperatures get to the mid 80s,
as the hot spots will be along the north central Florida counties.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Friday)
Issued at 310 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

High pressure dominating the area will keep the area mostly dry
for most of the upcoming week, save for some showers possibly
developing along the north central Florida counties during the
afternoon on Tuesday. The next chance of showers and storms looks
to be on Friday afternoon as the high pressure will begin to shift
off towards the Atlantic. With the high pressure over the area
during the upcoming week, daytime temperatures will rise to the
low 90s by midweek and eventually near the mid 90s in some
locations.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

Breezy south winds this evening will turn to the southwest overnight.
West and southwest winds on Sunday before frontal boundary moves
north to south, which brings winds around to the north to northeast
Sunday night and lasts through Tuesday. At this time, max winds
behind the cool front reach to 15-20 kt early Monday and does not
appear to be likely meeting small craft advisory conditions. However,
additional model guidance does suggest northerly winds may reach
advisory levels for the GA waters for at least a few hours during
the day on Monday. Stay Tuned! Winds will let up Tuesday night
and certainly on Wednesday as high pressure ridge builds over the
area, and the low pressure over the west Atlantic moves weakens.

Rip Currents: Low Risk of rip currents at all area beaches today
and Sunday. Risk goes up Monday and certainly Tuesday given the
winds becoming more onshore and building surf.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  67  86  66  84 /  40  70  10  10
SSI  70  86  70  79 /  70  70  30  10
JAX  69  90  69  82 /  70  70  30  30
SGJ  70  89  71  81 /  70  60  40  30
GNV  68  87  68  85 /  70  60  10  50
OCF  72  87  69  87 /  70  70  20  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$