953
FXUS63 KJKL 230731
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
331 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a potential for showers and thunderstorms at times from
  late tonight through Tuesday.

- A few storms Sunday could be strong to severe, with damaging
  winds and large hail being the primary threats.

- An increase in clouds and the possibility of rain will lead to
  somewhat cooler temperatures from Thursday into the first of
  next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1130 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2024

The MCS is raining itself out leaving behind thinning clouds and
damp ground late this evening. These ingredients will create a
period of fog for many places before additional clouds and a
renewed threat of storms move in from the west towards dawn. Have
updated the forecast mainly to lower PoPs for the next several
hours and beef up the fog. Did also include the latest obs and
trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These adjustments have been sent to
the NDFD and web servers along with forthcoming updates of the
zones, SAFs, and HWO.

UPDATE Issued at 745 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2024

23Z sfc analysis shows a stalling cold front to the northwest of
eastern Kentucky keeping the area in a juicy air mass primed for
periodic bouts of thunderstorms. This evening, the strongest ones,
locally, are currently rolling east along the KY/TN border east
of I-75. Additionally storms are located closer to the front to
the northwest of the area and may affect this part of the state
later this evening, but this is not well supported by the latest
CAMs. Otherwise, the flooding and flash flooding threat in the
south will slowly diminish into the rest of the evening as the MCS
continues to weaken. Currently, temperatures vary from the rain-
cooled mid 60s in the southwest parts of the CWA to the mid and
upper 70s out ahead of any convection. At the same time, dewpoints
are rather moist in the low to mid 60s amid generally light
southwest winds of 10 mph or less outside of any storms. Have
updated the forecast to capture the cooler air with the rains as
well as the latest CAMs ideas for the PoPs. This included adding
in the obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These updates have
been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of
the zones and SAFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 426 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2024

A cold front was situated from near Paducah to Detroit this
afternoon, weakening and slowing down as it headed southeast. The
front should stall as it tries to move into KY. Humid air is
present ahead of the front and has been fueling some showers and
thunderstorms. However, clouds have hindered destabilization in
many places. Even where sunshine did send temperatures into the
80s, activity has been limited due to a lack of significant upper
level features. With modest shear in place and ML CAPE of
2500-3000 J/KG where heating occurred, if storms can develop or
move in, severe weather can`t be ruled out and will need to be
watched closely. The greatest concentration of showers and storms
is currently headed into our southwestern counties and the
highest POP has been placed there as we head into the evening.
Models suggest this will last into the evening, followed by a
general decrease in activity across the region at least until
dawn approaches. A shortwave trough currently supporting
convection in TX and OK will move rapidly east northeast and
should support a round of showers/thunderstorms moving into our
area early Thursday morning. This will hinder destabilization on
Thursday and limit a severe wx threat. The precipitation is
forecast to decrease from west to east in the afternoon, leaving
only minimal potential for anything else through Thursday night.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 331 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2024

An unsettled weather pattern is expected into next week across
eastern Kentucky. The period begins Friday evening with a round of
showers and thunderstorms exiting east followed by a renewed push of
showers and a few storms into the overnight hours as a warm front
pushes northeast through eastern Kentucky coincident with the
arrival of a southwesterly low-level jet. Chance PoPs rise briefly
to likely PoPs during the early morning hours Saturday to account
for this.

Despite subtle mid-level height rises Saturday, a disturbance
crossing the Ohio River Valley should be able to initiate another
round of showers and thunderstorms to the south of a stalled front
over far southern Indiana and northeastern Kentucky. Shear will be
lacking so severe weather is not expected despite moderate
instability.

After a very brief lull Sunday morning, the next system reaches the
area by Sunday afternoon bringing a strong westerly jet stream with
it across the Lower Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys. This will
provide shear needed for strong to severe thunderstorms, while
associated ageostrophic flows in the lower levels will usher ample
moisture and instability into the Bluegrass State from the
southwest. Though instability will be not as robust over western and
central parts of the state, there is a Slight Risk for severe
thunderstorms Sunday afternoon into the overnight. This risk for
severe storms may linger into Monday until the passage of a strong
cold front late Monday or overnight Monday night.

From Tuesday through the end of the long-term period Wednesday
night, northwest cyclonic flow aloft keeps the chances for showers
and possibly a few thunderstorms in the forecast with a potentially
continued active jet stream extending across the Midwest.

Warm and humid conditions this weekend with highs in the 80s and
lows in the upper 50s to upper 60s will lower to the 70s for highs
and lower to mid 50s for lows by the middle of next week behind the
cold front.




&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2024

Showers and storms that were plaguing the area at the 0Z TAF
issuance have since dissipated/moved out of the area. We should
see a lull in activity overnight. The showers and storms will
again fire back up Thursday morning, and will become widespread at
times during the day, especially between roughly 15 and 22Z. as
a meandering frontal boundary moves around the area. The rain
should begin to taper off by around 0Z, as the front shifts
northward as a warm front. The challenge overnight will the fog
forecast. JKL has been plagued off and on the past few hours by
dense fog and extremely low CIGs, with IFR and even LIFR occurring
at times. These conditions will likely fluctuate for the next
several hours, with JKL seeing periods of both IFR or worse, and
VFR. Once the showers and storms fire back up later this morning,
the fog should be washed out for the most part, but any TAF sites
that experience a thunderstorm could see MVFR or even IFR
conditions for brief periods. Other than that, VFR conditions
should prevail for the most part. Winds outside of any
thunderstorm or intense shower should be out of the southwest and
relatively light.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...AR