Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
547 FXUS62 KKEY 241834 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 234 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024 We have enjoyed a rather pleasant day across the Florida Keys. A poorly defined low level ridge extends across from the eastern Gulf of Mexico into the western North Atlantic. This coupled with a weak surface high pressure, is making with light and at times variable winds for the island chain. It is also providing the area with dry air and keeping most of the clouds and rain at bay. Temperatures generally range from the mid 80s to near 90 with dew points in the lower 70s as of 1 pm. .FORECAST... The forecast thought process remains unchanged this afternoon. The aforementioned low level ridge will remain broad and weak as it sits across the Gulf of Mexico, southeast U.S., and western Atlantic. This will continue to provide a source of subsidence across the region which will greatly inhibit our rain chances through the upcoming holiday weekend. That said, any boundaries that manage to collide with enough gusto could spark off a few showers, similar to this morning out over the deep Gulf waters of our CWA. In addition, any daily convection that develops over the mainland could drift southward enough to graze the Upper Keys at times. The trend beyond the Memorial Day weekend looks to remain dry. Models are showing the deep dry air persisting now into at least Tuesday morning and there are hints that it could stubbornly hold out even longer. If we can get the deeper easterly flow that is advertise, eventually moisture from the western Atlantic will pivot towards our area and allow for some deeper showers and even a few thunderstorms. For now did not change the going forecast of 20 percent PoPs Tuesday and beyond. However, note that it could be overdone and may need to be lowered as we get closer. Temperatures through the period look to remain near 90 during the daytime and around 80 with a few locations in the interior of the larger islands dipping even below mid 70s. Dew points currently in the lower 70s do look to be trending upward for next week. This may mean that a risk for heat- related illnesses will return next week. && .MARINE... Issued at 230 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024 Light to gentle east to southeast breezes will continue through the end of the week as high pressure will remain in place. During the later half of Sunday, breezes will clock to a southeasterly to south direction and modestly freshen as the high pressure shifts its position. A threat for isolated thunderstorms returns as early as Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 230 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period at both EYW and MTH. Near surface winds will be near 5 knots and southeasterly becoming light and variable this evening into tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 81 89 81 89 / 0 0 0 0 Marathon 81 89 81 89 / 0 10 10 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...LIW Aviation/Nowcasts....AP Data Acquisition.....AP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest