322
FXUS62 KKEY 020231
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1031 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1025 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

After a very quiet day across the Keys area, isolated to scattered
showers have developed during the evening, with a cluster of
thunderstorms over the offshore Gulf waters well north of the
Lower Keys. This activity has largely avoided the island chain so
far, but some areas should see measurable rainfall during the next
several hours. Temperatures along the Keys have dropped into the
lower to mid 80s, with dewpoints in the lower 70s, and winds on
land from the east around 15 mph. Surface analysis depicts high
pressure centered just east of the Outer Banks, with the Keys in a
moderate gradient along the south side of this high. Aloft, weak
troughing is present over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, between
ridges over the western Atlantic and the southwestern Gulf. The
00Z Key West sounding showed the inversion rising and weakening
during the previous 12 hours, but a fair amount of dry air
remained in the mid levels, with PW near normal for the date at
1.57 inches. MIMIC-TPW satellite imagery shows similar estimated
PWs immediately upstream over far South Florida and eastward into
the Bahamas.

Overnight, the slightly more moist airmass in place as compared to
during the day on Saturday, combined with a bit of enhancement
from the nearby troughing aloft, may allow for some further
increase in shower activity across our region. Dry air in the mid
levels will continue to be a challenge however, and should keep
thunder isolated along the Keys overnight. Will leave the existing
40 percent PoPs unchanged for the overnight period. Otherwise,
have updated the forecast to remove breezy evening wording. Temps
appear to be on track for lows near 80 by morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1025 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Evening observations show E winds averaging between 14 and 18
knots along the reef and at Long Key C-MAN, with seas at Satan
Shoal running just below 3 feet. Obs trends and the latest
guidance suggest that winds will not likely increase much if any
from current levels through the rest of the evening, and have
replaced the Small Craft Advisory with a Small Craft Exercise
Caution headline for all Keys waters with the late evening
forecast update.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 1025 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at the EYW and MTH terminals through
Sunday afternoon. Shower coverage has increased somewhat across
the region this evening, and there is a decent chance for showers
in the vicinity of either terminal through the TAF period.
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible as well, however, chances
of direct impact at a terminal are too low for inclusion in the
TAFs at this time.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...Jacobson
Aviation/Nowcasts....Jacobson
Data Acquisition.....DP

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