Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
271 FXUS62 KKEY 121508 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1108 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1110 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Convection has temporarily shut off across the Florida Keys island chain and the adjacent nearshore and offshore coastal waters. The Florida Keys remain on the eastern edge of a conveyor belt of deep, tropical moisture originating from the western Caribbean. The 12z morning sounding at KEY highlighted a slight dry air intrusion in the 750-600 mb isobaric layer, as well as a subtle thermal inversion based at around 925 mb. With that said, the sampled convective temperature was 89F, and with peaks of sunshine this morning, temperatures are quickly approching this value across the island chain. For this afternoon, meteorological reasoning suggests convection should largely remain suppressed through the early afternoon hours. Thereafter, a screaming south to southwest veering profile should support convection firing in the vicnity of Cuba to easily shoot northward towards the island chain. Despite current dry conditions, a Flood Watch remains in effect for the island chain, as training storms railroading select island communities will be certainly possible. The forecast calls for likely rain chances through tonight, and see no reason to deviate from that. No changes proposed to the inherited short-term forecast. && .MARINE... Issued at 1110 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines are posted for all Florida Keys coastal waters except the Florida Bay for sustained winds 15 to 20 knots through the early afternoon. From synopsis, pattern for the remainder the week will feature weak high pressure over the western North Atlantic and a frontal boundary stalled over northern Florida. However, the main weather maker will be a large cyclonic gyre centered over Central America. As such, mainly moderate breezes and an extended period of unsettled weather featuring thundery squalls will persist this afternoon through Friday night. Rain and thunder chances will decrease gradually starting Saturday. Breezes will begin to freshen Saturday night into Sunday. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1110 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at EYW and MTH for the next few hours. Thereafter, shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to pick up later this afternoon into the evening and move through the area causing potential IFR conditions. For the time being, VCSH is included but as timing becomes more nailed down for exact airport impacts, TEMPOS will be included. Near surface winds will be southerly at 10 to 15 knots with occasional gusts of near 20 knots, but gusts in passing showers could near 30 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 87 80 87 79 / 70 70 70 70 Marathon 87 80 87 79 / 70 70 80 70 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Flood Watch through this evening for FLZ076>078. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...BT Aviation/Nowcasts....AP Data Acquisition.....AP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest