Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
588 FXUS62 KKEY 101855 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 255 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 255 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Convection is beginning to blossom across portions of waters. At the same time, convection firing across Cuba is quickly lifting north and moving into our waters. Meanwhile, southerly flow has remain constant across the island chain with current temperatures (as of 2 PM) near 90 and dew points in the upper 70s. Tropical moisture is steadily marching northward from the western Caribbean. The leading edge is essentially the round of convection that is moving north off of Cuba. This is because ridging across the Atlantic, centered just east of the Bahamas, is providing a southerly steering flow from the western Caribbean directly across the Florida Keys. Meanwhile, a stalled frontal boundary resides across northern and central Florida and is expected to linger in place through the end of the week. The combination of all of these features will allow for the tropical moisture to not only pool across region, but keep it trapped in place through at least Friday. This is setting up the potential for a prolonged wet period with a threat for localized flooding especially in areas that are flood prone due to poor- drainage or during times of high tide. At this time confidence remains low as to when the most likely window for flood potential will be. Therefore, will hold off on a Flood Watch at this time. As of now, WPC continues to have us under a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall. Models are struggling to determine what ultimately happens with all this moisture and how it will interact with the stationary front. For now the majority and consensus of the models show an inverted trough developing across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Yucatan Channel. This will allow for daily chances of likely PoPs across the island chain and surrounding coastal waters. By Saturday, models do agree that the plume will shift westward across the Gulf of Mexico as ridging settles southward across the Great Antilles. The greatest moisture will be to our west, but a general southerly steering flow from the western Caribbean will remain in place. Therefore, will continue to hold above normal PoPs through the latter half of the forecast period for now. && .MARINE... Issued at 255 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 No watches, warnings or advisories are currently active, however convection is racing northward across portions of our waters. Mariners are urged to monitor the situation for any potential weather statements or warnings. Breezes will freshen overnight, with the strongest winds occurring across the Straits of Florida and outer Gulf waters, which has prompted the need for a Small Craft Exercise Caution headline. Otherwise, widespread freshening of breezes and an extended period of unsettled weather will begin as early as tonight and persist through Friday night. Rain and thunder chances gradually decrease starting Saturday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 255 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Confidence is lowering as to how long VFR conditions will remain in place at both island terminals this TAF period. Showers and thunderstorms are already in the surrounding waters, but it doesn`t look like they will encroach upon the terminals until approximately 22Z. Weather type will be a mix of VCSH and VCTS, and both types will cross across the terminals periodically as areal coverage of these storms increases. When pockets of heavier showers and lower CIGs move onsite, conditions will deteriorate rapidly and may have a difficult time rebounding after the worst of these conditions pass through. All of this to say that the beginning of this TAF period is still pretty quiet, but once things pick up they will pick up fast and conditions are likely to change rapidly on, and in the vicinity of, both EYW and MTH terminals. Prevailing near-surface wind direction remains southerly, but will increase to 10 to 15 kts this evening with gusts of 20 to 25 knots possible at times. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 80 87 80 88 / 70 80 70 70 Marathon 81 87 80 88 / 60 70 70 70 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...LIW Aviation/Nowcasts....DP Data Acquisition.....DP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest