Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
074 FXUS62 KKEY 240216 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1016 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1015 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 Currently - Ridging dominates at all levels across the region this evening. At the surface through lower levels, ridging extends west southwestward across Florida and the Gulf of Mexico. The ridge is rather broad and is resulting in light east to southeasterly breezes across the Keys and surrounding waters. Thanks to the ridging in place, deep layered moisture is limited, particularly through the lower and mid levels. This along with a near complete lack of instability below 500 mb and backing low levels have resulted in zero convective activity across our forecast area. A shower cluster and even a short lived thunderstorm was able to bubble up over southwest South Florida. However, this activity all but perished soon after exiting the coast. Mild to warmish early summer conditions are in place with temperatures in the lower 80s and dew points in the lower 70s. Short Term Update - The dominant synoptic features controlling Keys weather will ease eastward a bit. However, this will mean essentially no changes to the synoptic order or sensible conditions. Winds will remain light out of the east to southeast. The lightness of the flow may allow some locations to do some radiating. Overall, expect overnight lows to range near 80. Dew points will remain fixed in the lower 70s. Forecast soundings suggest lower level inhibition will strengthen further with backing flow persisting. About the only things speaking in favor of shower potential is the usually enhanced nocturnal confluence along with Bahamian and South Florida boundaries. These mesoscale variables may not be sufficient to overcome the larger scale suppression. May consider removing first period PoPs in an evening update. && .MARINE... Issued at 1015 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 An Atlantic ridge stretching west southwestward across Florida will maintain light east to southeasterly breezes on Keys waters through the overnight period. No changes made in the evening marine update. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1015 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals overnight. Surface winds will be light out of the east to southeast. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...11 Aviation/Nowcasts....11 Data Acquisition.....DR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest