Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
444 FXUS62 KKEY 010847 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 447 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 112 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Currently - A surface high centered over the Mid-Atlantic is driving fresh easterly breezes across the Keys. As a result, for the first time in what seems like forever, robust easterly has spread across the Keys. Winds along the reef are gusting to 20 to 25 knots. Dry air and short wave ridging has kept largely stable conditions across the area and shower activity has been quite limited through the night. The healthy flow has given the Keys an infusion of modified continental air. As a result, temperatures are in the lower 80s with dew points broadly near 70. Forecast - The previously mentioned high cell will continue to drive southeastward into the Atlantic over the next couple of days. As a result, initially fresh easterly breezes today will gradually relax through the remainder of the weekend and into early next week. Another day or so of mild conditions will continue due to state of the modified continental air. Rain chances, however, will begin trending upwards. This will be due to the shortwave ridging aloft moving through and weakening as it gives way to incoming southern stream troughing. While island cloud lines are possible today, conditions will be quite a bit more favorable on Sunday. The high cell that moved off the Atlantic coast will weaken as it elongates out into the Atlantic early next week. As a result, surface winds will relax. The lengthening and warming maritime streamlines will result in further moderation of the incoming air. As a result, expect temperatures to nudge upwards closer to 90 while dew points creep back into the mid 70s. Meanwhile, mid level troughing is expected to persist, despite the upper level flow becoming zonal. The combination of the above justifies holding at least chance pops. Uncertainty ramps up from mid week and beyond. Guidance has been suggesting that a nearly cut off southern stream shortwave trough will roll across the Gulf of Mexico, on its way across Florida. This would normally spell higher rain chances. However, the region with the best lower level moisture is expected to remain well to our southeast. This will be in response to a new high cell advancing southeastward off the Atlantic coast. In addition, as the ridge slips down the Florida peninsula, the steering flow and low level forcing will weaken. For now, guidance is middling regarding rain chances. && .MARINE... Issued at 112 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 High pressure over the Mid-Atlantic will roll southeastward off the coast over the next couple of days then push eastward into the Atlantic. As a result, moderate to fresh easterly breezes will gradually trend downwards. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be required, at least initially, as winds remain up. Moderate ridging will remain stretched across the southeast and Florida through the first half of the week. This will keep breezes light and broadly out of the east. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 112 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Breezy, VFR conditions will prevail at EYW and MTH through the upcoming TAF period. Near surface easterly winds will stabilize between 10 and 15 knots with occasional gusts near 20 knots. Hi- res models suggest potential shower development near noon near EYW and MTH, prompting VCSH in the TAF. && .CLIMATE... On this day in day in Keys Weather History, the daily record low of 65F was measured at Marathon in 1955. This measurement tied for the coldest temperature ever recorded in the month of June. Temperature records at Marathon date back to 1951. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory for GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...11 Aviation/Nowcasts....AJP Data Acquisition.....AJP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest