Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
135 FXUS62 KKEY 031432 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1032 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1032 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Another convective chaotic morning for the Florida Keys and surrounding coastal waters. Showers and thunderstorms have been waxing and waning across the area through the overnight and into this morning. As was the case yesterday, most of the activity has stayed off the island chain, though Key Largo did manage to pick up nearly 2 inches from storms that trained over that island community. As of 10 AM, a cloudline was beginning to develop across the Lower Keys and will need to be monitored for further convective development. Where. clouds and rain are occurring, temperatures are being kept on the cooler side. Temperatures currently range from 77 at Ocean Reef to 88 at the north end of Big Pine Key. Given the mesoscale, messy nature of the atmosphere today, see no reason to deviate from high end chance PoPs (50 percent). Everything is going to hinge on which boundaries collide and where. With a healthy cloudline going up over the Lower Keys, this will serve as a focal point for new activity at least within the next 1-3 hours. Elsewhere, it will just be a matter of how quickly the air mass can recover and get ready for additional development. Otherwise, a sprawling surface high across the Atlantic, coupled with a low level ridge in the same general region will maintain an easterly flow across the area. && .MARINE... Issued at 1032 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect. However, ongoing convection is being handled at this time by Short Term Forecasts. An Atlantic ridge will extend a ridge westward across the southeastern United States over the next few days. As a result mostly easterly breezes will range gentle to moderate, peaking in the afternoon and evenings and lulling overnight into the morning hours. A mid latitude low riding through the eastern United States through the second half of the week will nudge the Atlantic ridge southwards across Florida. As a result, winds will relax, likely becoming variable at times. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 1032 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 VFR conditions are expected at EYW and MTH today. Higher than normal rain chances persist today and into tonight. Convection is expected to be somewhat sporadic and difficult to forecast exact timing and location for. Opted to leave a general vicinity mention in both TAFs with any future amendments accounting for possible sub-VFR impacts. Near surface winds will be out of the east at 5 to 10 knots, gradually increasing into later this evening. && .CLIMATE... On this day in day in Keys Weather History, in 1982, Tropical Storm Alberto intensified into a category one Hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph, about 120 miles west-southwest of Key West. The maximum wind measured at the Dry Tortugas was 60 knots, or about 70 mph, at 600 pm when the center of Hurricane Alberto was less than 25 miles west of the Dry Tortugas. a 24-hour rainfall amount of 16.47 inches was recorded in Tavernier. 6.25 inches fell at Key West during a 24-hour period ending at noon the next day. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...LIW Aviation/Nowcasts....JAM Data Acquisition.....JAM Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest