891
FXUS63 KLBF 291109
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
609 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon
into the evening hours, mainly west of highway 83. Large hail and
damaging winds are the main threats. Heavy rain is possible in SW
Nebraska.

- Another round of strong to severe storms is possible Thursday
night from southwestern into central and portions of north central
Nebraska. Heavy rain will be possible from SW into south central
Nebraska.

- Thunderstorms will be possible Saturday night and Sunday night.
Severe threat is uncertain at this time.

- Warmer temperatures are expected beyond Friday with highs in
  the 80s this weekend into early next week.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 319 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

H5 analysis tonight had a shortwave trough of low pressure over
Wisconsin into northern Illinois. A second shortwave trough was
located over eastern Quebec. Further west, ridging extended
from southern Wyoming, north into Saskatchewan and Manitoba.
Embedded shortwaves were noted from eastern Colorado, south into
the Texas Panhandle. Showers and thunderstorms developed
earlier this evening from eastern Colorado, south into western
Texas. West of the ridge, closed low pressure was located off
the coast of northern British Columbia, with a trough extending
south to of the coast of northern California. At the surface
tonight, high pressure was anchored over western Ontario. A
stationary frontal boundary extended roughly from northeastern
Wyoming, southeast into northeastern Kansas and central
Missouri. Overnight, skies were generally partly to mostly
cloudy over southern Nebraska, with clear skies noted from the
Sandhills north into north central Nebraska. Temperatures as of
3 AM CDT ranged from 46 degrees at Gordon to 61 degrees at
Imperial.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 319 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

The stationary front, currently anchored across the western
half of the forecast area, will lift northeast as a warm front
today. Winds will shift around to the south and will begin to
increase later this morning. This is in response to the
development of a surface trough of low pressure which will
deepen this afternoon over eastern Wyoming. The southerly winds
will lead to low level moisture advection today, resulting in
surface dew points in the middle 50s by afternoon. Late this
afternoon, a mid level trough of low pressure, will approach the
surface trough around peak heating, leading to thunderstorm
development in far eastern Wyoming. This activity will approach
the western portion of the forecast area in the 23z to 01z time
frame. As for the severe threat, it will be greatest over the
western half of the forecast area given the degree of favorable
shear and steepest lapse rates. The mode for severe storms will
be hail initially, followed by gusty winds as activity tracks
east of the panhandle. There will also be a minor threat for
heavy rain in SW Nebraska where forecast PWATS reach 1 to 1.25
inches late this afternoon. Given the only marginal threat for
heavy rain and 3 hour FFG of ~2.00 inches in SW Nebraska, will
forgo a flash flood watch ATTM. Thunderstorms will transition
into central and portions of north central Nebraska overnight
weakening as they travel east. On Thursday, a frontal boundary
will track east into portions of north central and far
southwestern Nebraska. Surface heating, coupled with the front
and the arrival of a weak mid level disturbance, will lead to
thunderstorm development INVOF the front Thursday afternoon. The
latest NAM12 soln along with the 00z HRRR support this forecast
scenario. As for the severe threat Thursday afternoon, it
appears fairly limited. Convective inhibition is weak so storms
should develop early and deep layer shear is marginal ~ 20-25
KTS so widespread severe storms are not anticipated. However,
Decent CAPE, 1-1.25 inch PWATS and the nose of a H85 low level
jet nosing into SW Nebraska would once again favor a heavy rain
threat south of I-80.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 319 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

A northern stream trough of low pressure, will force the front
south into central and eastern Kansas Friday. This will lead to
highs in the lower 70s and a limited threat for showers and
storms Friday into Friday night. A zonal pattern aloft will set
up across the western CONUS this weekend. During the late
afternoon/evening hours Saturday and Sunday, thunderstorms are
expected to develop over the higher terrain of eastern
Wyoming/northeastern Colorado/western Nebraska panhandle thanks
to decent mid level lapse rates and abundant low level moisture.
This activity will then transition east during the evening
hours impacting portions of the forecast area. ATTM, given
coverage and timing issues with the mid range models, will limit
pops to the 20 to 30 percent range. The zonal pattern aloft
will persist into next week. This will lead to highs generally
in the 80s for Monday and Tuesday, with a continued threat for
isolated/widely scattered thunderstorms, mainly during the late
afternoon/evening hours.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 603 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

VFR conditions will prevail across all of western and north
central Nebraska through 00Z Thursday. South to southeast winds
will increase this morning, gusting 25 to 35 kts through the
afternoon. A line/clusters of showers and thunderstorms will
develop across the Panhandle early this evening, advancing
eastward into the early overnight period. At this time, greatest
confidence on specific impacts from this activity exists for
LBF. Strong winds will be the main aviation concern as the line
passes through. For VTN, did cover with VCTS given uncertainty
on if the line will break up as it reaches the terminal or not.
Future amendments and inclusions are possible should confidence
increase with subsequent forecasts.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Viken