413
FXUS63 KLBF 252040
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
340 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

*Strong to severe thunderstorms late afternoon and evening

*Additional showers and thunderstorms Sunday

*Warmer by mid-week

*Another chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms Wednesday
and Thursday

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 338 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Precipitation chances will increase later this afternoon
into the evening hours. Dew points are currently in the mid 40s to
low 50s and are expected to reach the upper 40s to low 50s,
generally along and east of HWY 83 by late afternoon. This will
provide some marginal sfc moisture to the area, with the best
moisture remaining to the east across central and eastern Nebraska.
Do expect we could see a few strong to severe thunderstorms late
this afternoon and evening, with the main threat being wind. Initial
storms will move in from the west from WY this afternoon into
portions of western Nebraska, however the environment across the
northwest Sandhills is uncertain if it will be able to support
upscale growth and any thunderstorm that moves into that area will
have to compete with some drier air, thus leading to the
uncertainty. Another focus area for storm development will be across
southwest Nebraska where thunderstorms will develop across Colorado
and move northeast into the area. The environment is a little more
favorable across portions of southwest Nebraska, although drier air
could still play a factor as dew points will only be in the low 40s.
The greater moisture and most favorable location for strong to
severe thunderstorm development will generally be along and east of
HWY 83, thus any storms that develop or sustain themselves into this
environment should have a marginal threat of growing upscale into a
supercell, do think that a broken type line of storms will develop
as time goes on and storms progress eastward and would expect more
scattered/broken line development along and east of HWY 183 and
eastward. Forecast soundings are showing an inverted V type sounding
that increases confidence in the environment supporting strong to
damaging wind gust. This will be the main mode of hazard for severe
weather this afternoon and evening, however there is also a
potential for hail, CAPE values will be around 1000 J/kg to 1500
J/kg with lapse rates above 7 C/km. Except moist of the strong to
severe storm potential to be out of the forecast area shortly after
sunset.

As for Sunday, additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible
as another shortwave moves into the area. The greatest timeframe for
showers and thunderstorms will be Sunday afternoon lingering
into the evening hours.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 338 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Memorial Day will be dry with near normal temperatures as
highs will be in the low to mid 70s. A ridge will begin to build in
from the west and highs will warm into the 80s by Tuesday. A trof
will move through later Wednesday and should see a good chance for
scattered to more widespread showers and thunderstorms Wednesday
afternoon and evening. Another disturbance will move across the High
Plains on Thursday with another round of thunderstorms possible
Thursday afternoon and evening.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

There are no flight concerns across wrn/ncntl Nebraska until
22z this afternoon. Thereafter, two areas of storms are expected
to develop; both of which will move east thru the region.

First, scattered to numerous storm activity should develop
across ern WY by 19z this afternoon and enter or approach wrn
Nebraska by 22z. This activity will move east and exit ncntl
Nebraska by 05z. A second, less certain, area of storms may
develop across ern Colo and move east through swrn Nebraska;
exiting this area by 03z.

Another flight concern is expected to develop from 06z tonight
through late Sunday morning. With the passage of a cold front
tonight, MVFR/IFR ceilings are expected to develop along and
north of highway 2 across nrn Nebraska. Improvement to VFR/areas
of MVFR are likely in this area by 18z Sunday.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...Gomez
AVIATION...CDC