Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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835 FXUS63 KLBF 030900 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 400 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms are possible (25-40%) this afternoon and again tomorrow morning ahead of an approaching cold front. The threat for severe weather is low. - Dry conditions and near to above average temperatures are expected Wednesday and Thursday. - A more active weather regime returns to the area for Friday and beyond, with northwesterly flow developing and increasing the threat for convection entering the area off the high terrain. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 359 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Currently, the line of destructive thunderstorms from earlier this evening has exited the area and has weakened considerably, with remnant showers and thunderstorms over far eastern NE and western IA. Broad zonal flow aloft prevails across the central Plains, with continued southwesterly warm advection at H85. Temperatures range from the upper 50s to low 60s across the area, with weak and variable winds. For today, expect a return to broad southerly flow in the wake of this evening`s MCS as broad lee cyclogenesis begins across eastern WY. Aloft, flow begins to transition west-southwesterly, as an upper low begins to eject eastward across the Intermountain West into this evening. By late this afternoon, a dryline will slowly progress eastward to near HWY 61, with dewpoints in the 50s to low 60s across the area ahead of the boundary. With lapse rates aloft somewhat meager(6.5-7 C/km), MLCAPE will climb to only as high as 1000- 1500J/kg. Flow aloft looks weaker today as well, with H5 flow only ~15-20kts. Forecast sounding support limited deep layer shear, with limited length in hodographs across the area this afternoon. This should limit any severe weather threat today, with just scattered general thunderstorms anticipated to the east of the dryline. By tonight, the aforementioned upper low will begin to eject eastward across the Dakotas, with an associated surface low ejecting northeastward across South Dakota. This will drag a cold front through the area Tuesday morning, with a continued threat for scattered thunderstorms through early Tuesday afternoon before the front clears the area. As with Monday, not anticipating much in the way of severe weather, with meager instability and deep layer wind shear again anticipated. Behind the frontal boundary, increasing northwest winds are expected, as cold advection strengthens and a ribbon of stronger H7-H85 flow (30-35kts) moves into the area behind the low. This should translate to a period of 30-35mph wind gusts following the cold frontal passage late Tuesday morning. The colder air filtering in behind the front will also lead to highs in the 70s to low 80s, some 5-10F cooler than this afternoon. Lows fall into the low 50s Tuesday night, with a gradual return of warm advection by sunrise Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 359 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Upper ridging begins to amplify across the southwestern US into midweek, with heights rising locally behind Tuesday`s departing upper trough axis. This will lead to dry conditions for Wednesday and Thursday, along with highs returning to the 80s to near 90 across the area Wednesday. As we head into late week, the upper ridge center will begin to migrate southward towards the Mexico/US border, with an upper low migrating eastward into the eastern Great Lakes. This places the area on the northern periphery of the upper ridge axis, in broad and persistent northwesterly flow aloft. As low level flow returns to southerly on Friday, richer boundary layer moisture will stream back northward into the High Plains. This will lead to a return of instability, and with it a renewed threat for high terrain convection moving into western Nebraska. At least some threat for strong to severe storms look to exist for Friday and into the weekend and early next week, though mesoscale details will largely drive the degree of any threat. For this reason, confidence remains low with respect to any severe weather threat, though this will be monitored closely for late week and this weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1235 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 VFR should continue through the forecast period for western and north central Nebraska terminals. Cirrus from thunder activity will continue to clear out of the area overnight as near surface winds remain light and variable. Winds transition from southwest to southeast throughout the day and strengthen during the afternoon with gusts near 20 kts for northern terminals (VTN). && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Brown LONG TERM...Brown AVIATION...Snively