228
FXUS63 KLBF 092326
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
626 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

* A slight risk (risk level 2 of 5) of severe weather is possible
  Monday afternoon and evening with large hail up to 1 inch in
  diameter and severe winds up to 65 mph as the primary threats.

* Drier weather with a gradual warming trend is expected through mid-
  week with highs rising into the mid-90s by Wednesday and Thursday
  across southwest Nebraska.

* Active weather returns late week (Friday and Saturday),
  however, the severe potential remains uncertain at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 323 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024


Upper level ridging will remain in place through Monday morning
keeping conditions dry and mild. The ridge will begin to break down
during the afternoon as a short wave trough moves over the High
Plains. This trough will bring increased moisture and ample
instability (CAPE values near 1500 J/kg) across the Panhandle and
portions of north central Nebraska by late afternoon and into the
evening. As a result, scattered thunderstorms will develop by 21Z
and push eastward with some storms becoming severe with large hail
and wind gusts up to 65 mph mainly west of US-83. As storms continue
to move eastward through the evening, they will encounter a more
stable environment prohibiting severe thunderstorm potential. A few
stronger storms are still possible along and east of the US-83
corridor before weakening to just showers with some embedded
thunderstorms with heavy rainfall as the main threat. Showers
completely push out of the area by sunrise Tuesday morning. A dry
Tuesday is expected with plenty of sunshine allowing temperatures to
return to the 80s across the entire region.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 323 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Zonal flow will keep dry weather across the region through Friday
morning with increasing temperatures into mid-week. Warm air
advection with 850 mb temperatures in the 22 to 29 C range will
result in surface temperatures in the low to mid 90s south of I-80.
Elsewhere, widespread temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s will
be observed. These temperatures will easily be in the 75 to 80
percentile for high temperatures. Confidence in reaching the low to
mid 90s is therefore on the higher end. However, based on the latest
trends would not be surprised to see these mid-week highs increase a
few degrees more over the next few days as confidence continues to
increase. At this time, no heat headlines are expected as heat
indicies will top off in the mid to upper 90s. Stay tuned to the
latest forecasts as things may change in the coming days.

The next chance of showers and thunderstorms arrives on Friday and
Saturday as an upper level trough pushes off the Rockies into the
Great Plains. While the severe risk remains uncertain at this time,
there is the potential to see significant rainfall with this system.
Latest model guidance suggests precipitation to begin on Friday
evening continuing through Saturday evening. Probability of
receiving at least a half inch of new QPF between Friday morning and
Saturday night is in the 30 to 40 percentile range across portions
of north central Nebraska, leading to increased confidence in
getting some significant rainfall at the very least with this late
week system. With increased clouds and continuing precipitation,
temperatures will also return back into the 80s for Friday through
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 625 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

VFR conditions expected to persist through this valid period.

Any showers/storms this evening/tonight will remain well off to
the north and west of TAF sites. Better potential for
thunderstorms arrives late tomorrow but beyond the expiration of
this TAF issuance so will maintain dry conditions through 00Z
Tuesday.

Winds will generally be light overnight with the axis of the
developing low level jet becoming established far enough to our
west to prohibit low level wind shear at TAF sites. However as
the axis of stronger low level winds shifts eastward tomorrow,
winds will become gusty after diurnal heating mixes the boundary
layer. Expect southerly gusts above 25kt at KLBF and above 30kt
at KVTN.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...MBS