915
FXUS63 KLBF 071910
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
210 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is an enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) for severe thunderstorms
mainly through mid evening across portions of north central into
central Nebraska. Large hail and damaging winds are expected with an
isolated tornado or two possible.

- Cooler highs in the upper 60s to 70s Saturday through Monday, with
chances for showers and a few thunderstorms. The greatest threat is
over the western half of the forecast area.

- Drier weather with much warmer temperatures developing Tuesday
  into Wednesday and persisting through Friday.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

H5 analysis this morning had an upper level high over western
Texas/southeastern New Mexico. An elongated area of low pressure
extended from central Saskatchewan east southeast into
southeastern Ontario. For the northern half of the CONUS, from
the pacific NW into the Dakotas, broad east to west flow was
noted. Within this flow, a shortwave was noted over southwestern
Wyoming this morning with a second shortwave noted over
northern portions of the central valley of California. Other
disturbances were noted on the southern periphery of the
Saskatchewan low and extended from southeastern British Columbia
into southern portions of Saskatchewan. At the surface this
afternoon, a warm front extended from just north of Thedford,
ease southeast to just south of Ord Nebraska. Skies were partly
to mostly cloudy across the area and 2 pm CDT temperatures
ranged from 73 at Valentine, to 93 at Ogallala.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Severe potential this
evening will be the main forecast concern in the short term period.
Thunderstorm initiation is expected to take place around 20z this
afternoon. As for location of initiation, looking at the latest NAM
Nest, 13z HRRR and 12z WRF-ARW storm initiation ranges from Keya
Paha County (NAM Nest), to Brown and Rock counties (HRRR and WRF).
The model solns this morning lift the warm front up to as far north
as the SD/NE border by mid afternoon. This may be over done given
the ongoing convection over northern Nebraska and will need to be
ascertained near forecast issuance time. Believe initiation will take
place along this frontal boundary and this lies the highest
potential for tornadoes. As we progress into the latter afternoon
and early evening hours, super cell thunderstorms will track to the
southeast, eventually exiting the area by mid evening. Support for
supercell thunderstorms lie with deep layer shear on the order of 40
to 55 KTS this afternoon early evening. Low level moisture has
streamed into southwestern and western Nebraska this afternoon and
coupled with readings in the 80s/Lower 90s, has led to SB capes >
3000J/KG, which will be ample enough to overcome the 40+ kts of
shear. Very steep mid level lapse rates and 25+KTS of shear are
noted generally east of a Valentine to North Platte line which would
favor very large hail as the storms migrate southeast away from the
warm front. Eventually based on forecast DCAPE, supercells will
congeal into a line/bowing segment. By that point, the convection
should be exiting the area around the 01-02z time frame. Additional
convection may develop over the Cheyenne Ridge late this afternoon,
early evening. This activity may eventually make it into the
southwestern forecast area later this evening. ATTM, this activity
is not expected to be severe. Regardless, will introduce some low
pops in the SW to account for this threat overnight. Overnight,
surface high pressure will build into South Dakota forcing a pseudo-
backdoor cold front through the forecast area. By Saturday, this
feature will be oriented along the front ranges of southeastern
Wyoming/Colorado, south into the Oklahoma Panhandle and east along
the OK/KS border. Low level easterlies, anticipated cloud cover and
h85 temps in the lower teens are noted across the area on Saturday
and highs will struggle to get out of the lower 70s. There will be a
continued threat for precipitation Saturday, as showers and
thunderstorms develop off to the west and gradually lift east into
western portions of the forecast area. As for the severe threat, it
appears to be well off to the west and south of the forecast area
INVOF the backdoor cold front.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Surface high pressure will remain anchored over the Missouri
Valley Sunday into Monday. This will lead to a continuation of
easterly/southeasterly winds with a frontal boundary anchored
off to the west of the forecast area. Precipitation chances will
remain highest in the western forecast area as convection
drifts east off the higher terrain of eastern Wyoming/NE
Colorado. Highs Sunday and Monday will struggle to get out of
the lower 70s both days which is 10 to 15 degrees below normal
for this time of year. A second cold front will push through the
area Monday night into early Tuesday with a decent threat for
showers and thunderstorms. This will be followed by a general
warming trend for Wednesday through Friday with a more limited
threat for precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

The main aviation concern will be thunderstorm development this
afternoon across north central Nebraska lasting into the evening.
Northern Nebraska will see storm development by early afternoon with
storms moving southeast across north central Nebraska through the
afternoon and early evening. While both sites have the potential to
see thunderstorms, the majority of the storms will remain just to
the east of KLBF. KVTN could see a few hours of thunderstorms before
they move off to the southeast. Drier conditions return through
Saturday morning. The only other concern will be some light fog due
to increased moisture from recent rainfall at KVTN early Saturday
morning. Visibility restrictions should only drop to near 6 miles
keeping impacts minimal.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Kulik