587
FXUS63 KLBF 090900
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
400 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An upper trough and weak cool front will bring thunderstorm
  chances late Monday afternoon into Monday night. The main area
  of concern will be west of Valentine through Imperial, with
  the primary threats isolated large hail and damaging wind
  gusts.

- An upper ridge building across the Desert Southwest Wednesday
  and Thursday will support very warm temperatures. The NBM 75th
  percentile supports highs in the upper 90s across the
  southwest.

- An upper trough in the southwestern U.S. will approach and
  cross the region Friday and Saturday. This will bring the
  potential for strong thunderstorms and heavy rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Surface high pressure centered from the eastern Dakotas and
eastern Nebraska will keep a stationary front across southern
Wyoming, the Colorado Front Range to across the Texas Panhandle
and southern Oklahoma. Skies will be mostly sunny today with
light southeast winds and highs 75 to 80.

Tonight, surface high pressure will persist across the region
and push a weak cold front to the Gulf Coast. Surface low
pressure will develop across southeast Montana with a Pacific
cold front advancing across western Wyoming. Across western
Nebraska, skies to remain mostly clear with lows from the low to
mid 50s.

Monday, the Pacific front will advance into western South Dakota
and the western panhandle as an upper trough advances into the
Northern Plains. Ahead of the front, breezy southerly winds 15
to 30 mph, highs in the lower 80s and SBCAPEs from 1000-1500
J/kg will extend across the western Sandhills and southwest
Nebraska with deep layer shear from 25 to 30 kts. PWATS to 1.25
inches across the northwest Sandhills should be near 150% of
normal. With fairly strong frontal forcing, scattered to
numerous thunderstorms are likely to develop for the late
afternoon and evening hours across the northwest Sandhills into
north cnetral Nebraska. Storm coverage will be much more limited
across southwest Nebraska into eastern portions of north
central Nebraska, where frontal forcing will be lacking. NBM
probabilities of exceeding 0.5" QPF Monday night are low at only
10 to 25 percent for the northwestern Sandhills. Latest SPC Day
2 outlook shows a Marginal Risk for areas west of Valentine
through Imperial, with a Slight Risk over the far northwest
Sandhills. Isolated large hail and damaging winds possible with
the strongest storms.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Upper ridging will builds across the Desert Southwest Wednesday
into Thursday, this will bring very warm temperatures from 90 to
95 Wednesday and 85 to 95 Thursday. NBM 75th percentile supports
highs in the upper 90s both days across southwest Nebraska.

An upper trough across the southwestern U.S.  will approach the
area on Friday and cross the region Saturday. This will bring
the potential for strong thunderstorms and heavy rainfall both
days. PWATs will peak near 1.25 to over 1.5 inches on Friday.
Details on timing and the amount of severe weather remains
uncertain at this time.

Surface high pressure across the Northern Plains and Great
Lakes will bring slightly cooler highs in the 80s Friday and
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across the area through
today (Sunday). The exception will be the possibility of MVFR
and local IFR ceilings developing early this morning across far
southwest Nebraska extending northward into the Panhandle. These
ceilings will lift by this afternoon. Winds will become
southeast at 5-15 kts by this afternoon.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Taylor