267
FXUS64 KLCH 060936
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
436 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 429 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

For the first time in several days, no mesoscale convective
systems are on our doorstep or developing further upstream
northwest of our area. Both radar and satellite imagery confirm
rather quiet conditions across the region this morning, with the
exception of a few showers developing across SE into S Central LA
and the adjacent coastal waters zones.

This activity was forming in the vicinity of a weak surface
frontal boundary draped across the area, with a relatively notable
temperature gradient marking its presence. Across E TX into W LA,
temperatures are in the upper 60s to lower 70s, while further
southeast across the Acadiana region, temperatures are in the
upper 70s/near 80. Light winds and copious surface moisture have
combined to produce some patchy fog around the area this morning.
Meanwhile, the latest UA analysis and WV imagery shows a
shortwave trough aloft progressing southeast across the lower MS
Valley toward the NE Gulf this morning, while ridging continues to
build over the southwestern US.

Conditions are expected to become drier and hotter going into the
weekend. At this time, heat advisories are not expected, but heat
index values could climb to between 100 and 105 degrees each
afternoon from Friday through Sunday. Beyond this weekend, rain
chances are expected to return by early next week as another
disturbance and surface front move into the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 429 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

The weak boundary will continue to slowly drift southeast toward
the coast today. Deeper moisture poised across the Acadiana
region should be sufficient to produce some scattered showers and
storms this morning into early this afternoon, especially as
heating provides additional instability. Despite this "front",
temperatures will not be any cooler. In fact, highs are expected
to reach the lower to middle 90s this afternoon, with the highest
temperatures expected across SE TX where drier air and less cloud
cover will promote better surface heating.

By Friday into Saturday, the western ridge will build further east
across TX, and begin to influence the local weather pattern by
suppressing rain chances and allowing daytime temperatures to
climb into the lower to middle 90s each afternoon. A few locations
in SE TX could reach the upper 90s. Sufficient mixing should keep
dewpoints from becoming too oppressive, and thus limit heat index
values to sub-advisory criteria. That said, individuals should
use caution during outdoor activities and drink plenty of water.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 429 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

The dry and hot pattern will continue into Sunday as the ridge
aloft builds east and southeast over the northern Gulf of Mexico.
Daytime highs are again expected to reach the lower to middle 90s.

The ridge will begin to flatten late Sunday and eventually break
by early next week as a shortwave trough digs over the eastern
US. This system will usher another weak front into the region on
Monday. Moisture pooling in advance of the system will raise PWATs
back to around 2 inches, which combined with instability and low
level forcing, will help generate scattered showers and storms
across the area during the day Monday. The weak front will push
offshore, with weak surface ridging developing across the region
through the middle of the week. Meanwhile, ridging aloft will
become re-established west of the area, allowing a shortwave
trough to slide southeast over the area, and this should result in
at least some widely scattered to scattered showers and storms
each day. With increasing cloud and shower coverage, daytime
temperatures will lower back into the upper 80s to lower 90s

24

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 429 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Light west to southwest flow this morning will trend more offshore
through the morning into afternoon as a weak frontal boundary sags
south over the coastal waters. Scattered showers or thunderstorms
will be possible along the boundary today, mainly over the waters
east of the Cameron.

Drier conditions and a light generally offshore flow will then
persist into Friday, with onshore flow resuming over the weekend
as high pressure moves east of the area. Another front will move
southward over the coastal waters by early next week, bringing the
next chance for rain and another period of light variable to
offshore flow.

24

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  91  68  93  68 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  92  72  94  73 /  10   0   0   0
LFT  91  73  94  73 /  20   0   0   0
BPT  94  73  96  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24