Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
FXUS64 KLCH 231742
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1142 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017
Expect southerly winds throughout the evening hours. Winds
tapering off after sunset. Mostly clear with clouds moving in
late this evening. Ceilings falling through the overnight hours
with visibilities dropping to IFR/LIFR conditions.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 907 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017/
An area of dense fog persists acrs portions of southwest LA,mainly
along the I-10 corridor between Lake Charles and Crowley
northward into southern Vernon and Rapides Parishes. This area is
expected to erode through the next hour as daytime heating/mixing
take over. Went ahead and extended part of the dense fog advisory
for another hour for the aforementioned area, while letting the
remainder of the advisory expire at 9 am.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 538 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017/
Radiation fog has developed resulting in visibility restrictions
across most of SW LA. The fog has been densest in the vicinity of
KLCH where LIFR conditions have been persisting over the past
several hours. The eastern periphery of the fog has resulted in
mostly MVFR conditions for KAEX, KARA, and KLFT. Slightly drier
conditions across SE TX have limited the development of fog so far
this morning. Current fog restrictions are expected to persist
through 15Z with TEMPO decreases to lower flight rules possible.
After 15Z VFR will be the rule with southerly winds.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 354 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017/
Update to expand the dense fog advisory further northward to
include all of Central and South Louisiana between the Sabine and
Atchafalaya river within our warning area. Many locations
visibilities dropping rapidly, and concurs with latest HRRR and
NAM12 visibility guidance. Areas of dense fog not to OPL/LFT/ARA
yet, but just west of these locations at Jennings, Oakdale, and
Abbeville, but expected to expand eastward as well. Updates out.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 303 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017/
Wx map shows departing sfc and upper low over FL, with weak high
pressure over the area. With the calm winds and clear skies, areas
of dense fog continues to develop along and south of the I-10
corridor with visibilities a quarter mile or less. Thus, issued
dense fog advisory through 9 am for these areas. Did not include
SE TX, as a little more mixing and light SE winds have resumed,
limiting the fog formation.
Fog expected to dissipate by mid morning as southerly winds
increase today as low pressure intensifies over the Central
Plains. Expect warmer temperatures this afternoon, with highs in
the upper 70s to near 80, about 10-15 degrees above normal.
A stronger cold front will move through the region late Friday
night into Saturday morning. With limited moisture, only going
with 20% over South Central Louisiana, with less further west.
Behind the front, temperatures will return to normal values for
Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning.
Cool spell ending quicker with the latest model consensus. Also,
the chances of showers and isolated thunderstorms expected to
return much sooner, possibly affecting the Mardi Gras parades late
Sunday through Tuesday. Stronger cold front approaching Wednesday
will increase the shower and thunderstorm chances further.
Temperatures will continue to be 10-15 degrees above normal until
the next cold frontal passage late Wednesday.
Onshore flow will increase later today and tonight as high
pressure moves east of the area and low pressure intensifies over
the Central Plains. Stronger offshore flow will return Friday
night and Saturday with the passage of a stronger cold front. High
pressure behind this front will quickly move east Sunday with
onshore flow returning through the middle of next week.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 80 58 81 47 / 0 10 10 10
LCH 77 61 80 51 / 0 10 10 10
LFT 79 60 80 51 / 0 10 10 20
BPT 78 62 82 51 / 0 10 10 10