Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 231130
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
630 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 23/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN STALLED OVERNIGHT FROM ROUGHLY WEST OF
KBPT TO JUST ALONG THE COAST...WITH DEW POINTS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...AND OVER LAND IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE NIGHT...SOME PATCHY FOG
WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES HAVE DEVELOPED AT KLFT/KARA. THIS SHOULD
DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. ALSO...SOME MVFR CEILINGS
LOCATED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE ARRIVED AT KBPT...AND
THESE CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE AT MVFR UNTIL ABOUT MID MORNING.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH TODAY AS TROUGH OUT DEVELOPS
AND STRENGTHENS...HELPING TO INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND PUSH THE
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS...AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING NEAR KLCH AND KBPT...THEN
NEAR THE OTHER TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. DURING THE
OVERNIGHT...LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE BRINGING MVFR CEILINGS
BACK OVER TAF SITES.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLED ALONG THE COAST THIS
MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. TEMPS
ACROSS THE CWA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO
LOW 70S WITH AROUND 80 SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

ACROSS THE REST OF THE COUNTRY... A SLOW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
IS MOVING ACROSS THE SW STATES WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. AS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS MORE TODAY,
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ALONG THE COAST WILL LIFT NORTH
RETURNING THE HIGH DEWPOINTS TO SE TX AND LA. FAST MOVING SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORM WILL ACCOMPANY THE WAA TODAY, HOWEVER QPF
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE... FLASH FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED TODAY... HOWEVER BY SUNDAY MORNING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE WITH POTENTIALLY THE FIRST IN MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL MOVING INTO SE TX BEFORE NOON. PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO CLIMB TO AROUND OR OVER 2", NEAR LATE MAY DAILY RECORD VALUES,
WHILE A SHORT WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT AIR MASS REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WHILE MULTI DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE THE REGION LEADING TO A FLASH
FLOODING THREAT.

WITH THE RAIN THAT HAS RECENTLY FALLEN ACROSS THE AREA AND THE
INCOMING HEAVY RAIN, A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR SE
TX AND WEST LA STARTING SUNDAY MORNING AND GOING THROUGH MON. THIS
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE EXPANDED EAST AND IN TIME AS THE EVENT DRAWS
CLOSER, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CEN LA.

TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY WED THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SW STATES
FINALLY PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
BIGGEST THREAT OF FLOODING AS THE HIGHEST MOISTURE EXITS EAST,
HOWEVER SCT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL OCCUR THROUGH THE
REMINDER OF THE WEEK.

MARINE...A COLD FRONT IS STALLED ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING,
HOWEVER THE BOUNDARY WILL RETURN NORTH TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN INTO
THIS EVENING WITH WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL LESSEN SOME THROUGH SUNDAY,
HOWEVER A MODERATE SE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  85  70  83  69 /  40  40  70  80
LCH  84  74  84  71 /  40  40  60  80
LFT  85  72  85  72 /  50  30  50  70
BPT  85  76  83  73 /  40  30  80  80

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     LAZ027-030-041-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$


AVIATION...07


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