Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 031729
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1129 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
VSBYS HAVE LIFTED ABV A MILE...WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS NOW ABV 6
MILES SO CANCELLED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY OVER INLAND AREAS. LEFT
THE ADVISORY IN PLACE THROUGH 18Z FOR THE COASTAL ZONES AND
NEARSHORE WATERS WHERE A FEW OBS SITES CONTINUE TO SHOW VSBYS LESS
THAN ONE QUARTER OF A MILE. VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE BRIEFLY THIS AFTN
OVER COASTAL AREAS...WITH DENSE FOG RETURNING AGAIN LATE THIS AFTN
OR EARLY EVENING. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...
WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY ALTHOUGH SOME
LOCATIONS ARE BEGINNING TO SEE IMPROVEMENTS IN VISBY. WARM FRONT
HAS LIFTED NORTH OF I-10 WITH BETTER VSBYS JUST SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY ALTHOUGH DENSE SEA FOG PERSISTS ALONG THE COAST AND OVER
THE NEARSHORE WATERS. SINCE A FEW POCKETS OF DENSE FOG WILL
LINGER OVER INLAND AREAS THROUGH 11AM-NOON...DECIDED TO EXTEND
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS THE RAPID VARYING VSBYS CAN STILL MAKE
FOR HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/WINDS THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT THE SLOWER THAN
EXPECTED RETREAT OF THE WARM FRONT. OTHERWISE...A FEW SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A TSTM CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS THE WARM AND MOIST
AIRMASS OFF THE GULF SPREADS NORTH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...LIFR AND IFR VIS AND CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
MID TO LATE MORNING TODAY AS FOG AND STRATUS SLOWLY MIX OUT AND
LIFT. CEILINGS MAY BECOME MVFR THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER WITH
MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE FOG WILL OCCUR AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH LOW CEILINGS AND VIS EXPECTED AGAIN. LIGHT NE WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SE TO S BY LATE MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...UPDATED EURO DATA LOOKS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS ON SUFFICIENTLY
COLD TEMPS FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
INCLUDING JASPER, LEESVILLE, ALEXANDRIA AND MARKSVILLE LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WILL UPDATE ZONES SHORTLY.
WENT WITH MINIMAL ICE ACCUMULATION...ABOUT A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SYNOPSIS...DENSE FOG WILL LINGER UNTIL AROUND NOON AS A VERY
MOIST LAYER IS ENCOUNTERING A WEAKENING WARM FRONT LIFTING OUT OF
THE GULF. WARM SATURATED AIR FROM THE LOWER GULF HAS BEEN
ADVECTED OVER COOLER WATERS AS WELL AS COOL GROUND COVER AND WITH
THE LIGHT WINDS...THE RESULT HAS BEEN THE FORMATION OF DENSE FOG.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN TODAY
DUE TO THE MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIRMASS WHICH AT JUST UNDER 1.5
PRECIP WATER WAS NEARLY TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS MORE MOIST THEN IS
TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS...POSSIBLY A HARD FREEZE FOR THE NORTHERN
ZONES AND A LIGHT FREEZE AWAY FROM THE COAST FRIDAY MORNING. OF
SOME CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL BE ENDING JUST AS THE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES MOVE IN. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE
RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING A FEW HOURS BEFORE TEMPS LOWER TO THE
FREEZING MARK LATE THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS WEEKEND DUE TO
OVERRUNNING BEFORE THE UPPER TROF PUSHES THROUGH FROM THE WEST
LATE SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM...MUCH WARMER DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER TODAY WITH TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 70S AS WARM GULF AIR MOVES IN. DID NOT GO QUITE AS
HIGH AS GUIDANCE DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER WHICH SHOULD ALSO MODERATE
OUR TEMPS TNITE...WENT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT, MUCH HIGHER
THAN NORMAL.

LONG TERM...CHOSE TO BLEND IN THE WARMER EUROPEAN SOLUTION AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS A BIT EARLY TO GO
WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS AT THIS TIME.

MARINE...DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING WITH ONLY A SLOW IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  73  64  77  35 /  20  30  40  70
KBPT  70  65  77  38 /  20  30  40  60
KAEX  73  64  77  32 /  30  30  60  80
KLFT  76  65  79  36 /  30  20  30  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR EAST CAMERON-IBERIA-
     LOWER ST. MARTIN-ST. MARY-VERMILION-WEST CAMERON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR JEFFERSON.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$





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