Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 040007
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
555 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

.Discussion...
For the 03/00Z Taf Issuance.

&&

.Aviation...
Warm frontal boundary sitting off the coastline of Texas and
Louisiana with rain...showers and isolated thunderstorms forming
just to the north of the boundary. This activity was moving north
across most of the county warning area. Therefore...expect a chaotic
night of low clouds...low visibility and at times windy conditions
along the coastal TAF`s. Its an ugly mess...and not expecting much
improvements overnight. Be careful out there aviation folks! Flying
near the coast near the marine/land interface is very unstable with
gusty winds and frequent lightning possible. Marine warnings
beginning to get going...so watch out near the warm frontal
boundary or avoid.

.SYNOPSIS...
The coastal trough/warm front has nudge a little further off the
coast this afternoon...and is roughly about 30 miles off the South
Central Louisiana coast to 20 mile offshore the Southeast Texas
coast. Meanwhile, the upper level low remains over the Baja
region...with an active and very moist southwest flow ahead of it.
This allowing for over-riding showers to continue over the
forecast area, with heavy rainfall the main concern, as latest
GPS-MET data from the KLCH site has a Precipitable Water value of
almost 2 inches which is well over twice the standard deviation.
Since midnight through 3 pm the ASOS at KBPT 5.55 inches of rain
has fallen which is a daily rainfall record. Jefferson County DD6
Alert gauges show a wide area of 4 to 7 inches across the county,
while the Calcasieu Parish Alert Gauges having on average between
2.5 and 4 inches.

Rua

&&

.DISCUSSION...
There is not expected to be much movement in the coastal
trough/warm front...if anything it may slip a little bit offshore.
Therefore, the heavy rainfall threat will continue in the general
area where it is now into the evening hours. Looks like an
additional 2 to 3 inches of rainfall on average will fall in the
area northwest of an Opelousas to Cameron line...with locally
higher amounts. Therefore, the flood watch will continue as these
rainfall amounts fall on now saturated grounds.

High rain chances will continue until the upper level system
decides to kick out on Monday, when a surface low develops on the
trough and moves across during the afternoon hours. This may also
allow the southeastern portion of the forecast area to warm sector
for a time that will increase low level instability and a possibly
of some strong to severe weather to go along with the heavy
rainfall.

Drier air will move in behind the departing surface low Monday
Night into Tuesday.

The next story will be cold weather late in the week, as a strong
Canadian cold front moves across late Wednesday and Wednesday
Night. The air mass will be some 15F degrees below normal, with
freezing temperatures on Thursday Night/Friday Morning down to
below the I-10 Corridor.

Rua

&&

.MARINE...
The gradient across the coastal trough has lowered this afternoon
and therefore, winds are below small craft advisory criteria and
this should continue for the remainder of the night into Sunday.
Winds will increase again on Sunday Night, as a surface low forms
over Lower Texas and moves toward the coastal waters.

A Coastal Flood Advisory will continue for one more high tide
cycle this evening as actual tide levels will be 1 to 2 feet above
predicted levels.

Rua

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  50  55  49  60 / 100 100  90  90
LCH  58  62  53  65 / 100 100  90  90
LFT  62  67  56  70 /  80  90  80  80
BPT  57  61  53  64 / 100 100  90  90

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flash Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for LAZ027-028-030-
     031-041-042-073-074.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM CST Sunday for LAZ052-073-074.

TX...Flash Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for TXZ180-201-215-
     216-259>262.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM CST Sunday for TXZ215.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION until midnight CST tonight for
     GMZ435-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...07



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