Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 221810
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1210 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.AVIATION...
CLOUDS ARE FINALLY LIFTING AND VSBY P6SM THESE CONDITIONS WILL
HOLD THRU SUNSET. CLOUDS AND LOWER VSBY IS XPCD OVERNIGHT W/ TAF
SITES BECMG IFR/LIFR AROUND 06Z THRU 14 TO 15Z. FRONT IS XPCD THRU
THE RGN LATE TMRW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

UPDATE...
VSBYS HAVE BEGUN TO QUICKLY IMPROVE ACRS THE AREA...THUS HAVE
CANCELLED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. PATCHY FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH
NOON...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTN. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT RECENT OBS AND TRENDS...BUT OTHERWISE FCST IS
ON TRACK. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

UPDATE...
WARM FRONT IS CROSSING THE LOWER NECHES RIVER IN SE TX...WITH
VSBYS NOW ABV 7 SM AT BPT...AND IMPROVING THE ORG AND BMT AWOS
SITES. THE FRONT EXTENDS FM N OF HOUSTON SE TOWARD CAMERON THEN
EAST ALONG THE LA COAST. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...VISBYS REMAIN
BELOW ONE MILE WITH NUMEROUS LOCATIONS STILL NEAR ONE QUARTER OF
A MILE. THEREFORE...WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY THROUGH NOON FOR ALL BUT HARDIN...JEFFERSON AND ORANGE
COUNTIES. EXPECT VSBYS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS MIXING ENSUES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM
FRONT.

MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO POPS FOR TODAY WITH LITTLE NOTED ON
RADAR OTHER THAN SOME ISLTD SHOWERS OVER THE ERN COASTAL WATERS.
HRRR PROGS AND OTHER HI-RES MODELS DEPICT THESE INITIAL SHOWERS
LIFTING NE OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY...WITH RAIN CHCS INCREASING
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...FEW CHANGES TO THE FCST AT THIS TIME WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABV 70 DURING
THE AFTN AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN OFF THE GULF. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 840 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

UPDATE...
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH SEVERAL OBSERVATIONS ACRS THE
AREA REPORTING VSBYS DOWN TO ONE QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS. A WARM
FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NR THE COAST AND WILL LIFT NORTH THIS
MORNING ACRS THE REGION. THIS WILL HELP TO BEGIN CLEARING THE
FOG. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS VSBYS IMPROVING BY LATE MORNING...BUT THE
ADVISORY MAY BE EXTENDED IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

AVIATION...WHILE A FRONTAL WAVE ATTEMPTS TO FORM OFF THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST, OVERRUNNING LOW STRATUS AND SOME SEA FOG HAS MOVED
INTO THE LCH AIRPORT WITH MODERATE SE WINDS AND LIFR CONDITIONS.
LFT AND ARA ARE MORE INFLUENCED BY LIGHT NE WINDS UNDERCUTTING THE
SHALLOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH IFR CONDITIONS.

FURTHER NORTH, AEX HAS PATCHY LIFR WHERE A COLD POOL OF MOISTURE
HAS BEEN TRAPPED IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY. SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR
AROUND BPT HAS PRODUCED IFR CIGS IN OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS AHEAD
OF THE WARM FRONT.

WINDS SHOULD INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INLAND
WITH IMPROVEMENT ON VIS BUT IFR CIGS LINGERING UNTIL NOON AT LCH
AND ARA WITH IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR...EARLIER IMPROVEMENT THIS
MORNING TO MVFR FOR LFT AND AEX. BPT SHOULD SEE MVFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

A WEAK COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE VLIFR CONITIONS
IN THE BROAD FRONTAL ZONE AT THE SOUTH LA AIRPORTS. BPT AND AEX
SHOULD SEE AN EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY STARTS OFF WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG...BUT THERE COULD
ALSO BE A FEW SHOWERS THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE BASE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS POINT INSTABILITY LOOKS MARGINAL AND
NOT CONFIDENT ON HOW MUCH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL ACTUALLY
OCCUR IN SE TX OR SW LA. THE BEST AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING
SOME STRONG ONES...WILL BE IN ACADIANA OR SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

A COOL DOWN COMES IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S
ON WEDNESDAY CHRISTMAS EVE...AND THEN LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S
FOR CHRISTMAS MORNING. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. CHRISTMAS DAY
SHOULD BE DRY...BUT HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SMALL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THANKS TO THE NEXT COLD FRONT PASSAGE. THERE IS SOME
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
ON SATURDAY...SO I WOULD EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST AS WE GO
THROUGH THIS WEEK.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  58  65  43  54  37 /  20  70  40  10  10
KBPT  58  63  43  53  37 /  20  60  20  10  10
KAEX  55  62  41  52  33 /  20  70  40  10  10
KLFT  60  67  46  54  37 /  20  80  50  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

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&&

$$







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