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000
FXUS64 KLCH 180458
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1158 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...
18/06Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.AVIATION...
Little change fm previous TAF thinking with high pres expected to
remain in place at the sfc and aloft through Friday.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1024 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017/

UPDATE...
We did have storms around the region today... north of the I-10
corridor and this did help cool things back a bit acrs inland
lctns... but along the coastal counties and parishes heat indices
ranged from 105 to 110 degrees.

Currently showers have ended acrs southeast Texas and southern
Louisiana this eve as the atmosphere has somewhat stabilized.
Looking for another hot and muggy night acrs the region and this
really does not look to change all that much over the next several
days. The weather of note is the heat index which will jump above
the century mark before the noon hour tmrw topping out well above
the century mark by the early afternoon and remain there into the
early evening hours... 105 to 110 degrees.

Those folks that are new to the area remember to remain hydrated...
take frequent breaks while working outside... and to use large
hats with sunscreen.

19

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 701 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017/

DISCUSSION...
18/00Z TAF Issuance.

AVIATION...
Aftn convection has dissipated, as has most of the CU field acrs
the area. South to southwest winds are expected to diminish
overnight with VFR conditions to prevail. Brief IFR cigs will be
possible at AEX around daybreak but cigs should scatter and lift
to VFR through mid-morning. Aftn convection will be limited but
not entirely absent so inserted VCTS after 18Z for LA TAF
locations. Winds expected to shift more westerly during the day,
with speeds between 5-10 KT.

24

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 404 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017/

SYNOPSIS...
A hot and very muggy air mass is holding across the forecast area
this afternoon. A few showers and storms were able to develop in
the daytime heat...and that activity was able to provide some
cooling. Otherwise, heat advisory criteria was met in some
locations with apparent temperatures still ranging from 105 to 110
in areas that did not receive rainfall or the passage of any
outflow boundaries, as dewpoints remain in the upper 70s to near
80F in those places. Trimmed back the heat advisory for the
remainder of the afternoon for locations that have been cooled
down by the shower activity, mainly upper Southeast Texas and
Central Louisiana. Below are some of the max apparent temperatures
from reporting stations as of 3:15 PM CDT:

Lake Charles Regional, LA (KLCH)..........110F
Orange, TX (KORG).........................110F
Sulphur/Carlyss, LA (KUXL)................109F
De Ridder, LA (KDRI)......................109F
East Lake Charles/Chennault, LA (KCWF)....108F
Lafayette, LA (KLFT)......................108F
Cameron, LA (KCVW)........................108F
Abbeville, LA (KIYA)......................108F
Patterson, LA (KPTN)......................108F
Oakdale, LA (KACP)........................107F
Beaumont/Port Arthur, TX (KBPT)...........106F
Salt Point, LA (KP92).....................106F
Jennings, LA (K3R7).......................105F
Jasper, TX (KJAS).........................105F
Beaumont City, TX (KBMT)..................105F

Rua

DISCUSSION...
Looks like the flat mid/upper level ridge will continue across the
region through Saturday. This will keep low level moisture and
high dewpoints, that will produce a very muggy airmass in place.
The somewhat dry air in the mid levels will also help keep shower
activity at a minimum. The only exception may be in upper
Southeast Texas and Central Louisiana on Friday as a tail end of a
short wave will try to kick off a few showers and storms across
the northern zones. With that, air temperatures again will be in
the low to mid 90s, while dewpoints outside of convection areas
will remain in the mid to upper 70s. Therefore, max heat index or
apparent temperatures will range from 105F to 110F degrees, with
heat advisory criteria of 108F and greater being met again in most
of the same locations of today. Thus will issue another heat
advisory for Friday for those locations.

Later in the weekend, into early next week, the upper level ridge
will begin to move back to the west. In the meantime, an upper
level low/inverted trough feature, is expected to move across the
Gulf of Mexico. Therefore, better overall atmospheric moisture
profiles will again move back into the forecast area, with
possibly the highest rain chances on Tuesday, when inverted trough
will be west of the area, placing the forecast area in more of a
deeper southerly flow. Could be some locally heavy downpours mixed
in with the convection as elevated PWAT air moves back in.

Of course with solar eclipse day on Monday, looks like scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms during the early afternoon with
broken clouds, as that better moisture and daytime heating take
hold. Although hopeful we will get lucky and some drier air will
get entrained on the west-side of the inverted trough/wave axis as
happens sometimes, and less clouds and showers will actually come
about as what is looks like right now some 4 plus days out.

Rua

MARINE...
Surface high pressure looks to continue to ridge across the
northern Gulf of Mexico into the weekend. This will allow the
light to modest onshore flow and relatively low seas to persist.
An increase in showers and thunderstorms will be possible late in
the weekend into early next week as an inverted trough moves
across the Gulf of Mexico.

Rua

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  76  92  75  93 /  20  30  20  40
LCH  80  93  78  93 /  10  20  10  20
LFT  77  93  76  92 /  10  20  10  40
BPT  79  93  78  93 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for LAZ030>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for TXZ201-215-216-
     261-262.

GM...None.
&&

$$