470
FXUS64 KLCH 151723
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1223 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An upper ridge overhead will limit cloud cover and thunderstorm
activity this afternoon allowing afternoon highs to climb into the
mid to upper 90s.

- A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for south central Louisiana
Thursday through Saturday.

- Heavy rainfall from a tropical disturbance will have the
  potential to produce rainfall totals of 1-6 inches Thursday
  through Saturday with amounts of up to 15 inches possible in a
  few locations across south central Louisiana.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Upper level ridging along with a weak surface high will
limit convection and cloud cover this afternoon which will allow
highs to climb into the mid to upper 90s. However, relatively drier
air off the surface is expected to mix down dropping dewpoints into
the low to mid 70s which will keep apparent temperatures just below
heat advisory criteria. A few, small thunderstorms may still be able
to develop near the coast or in the vicinity of the Atchafalaya
basin, but these will be short lived and provide only limited relief
from the heat. A very similar setup is expected again tomorrow with
little in the way of afternoon convection and temperatures back in
the mid to upper 90s.

A closely watched tropical disturbance currently centered over the
Florida peninsula will move west across the northern gulf Wednesday
through the second half of the week. NHC gives this disturbance a
40% chance of development once it emerges over the eastern gulf.
Guidance has been in good agreement over the last couple of days
that while conditions are generally favorable for development, any
development will be fairly slow and the disturbance is expected to
remain a relatively weak tropical system even if it does become a
named storm. Guidance consensus brings a large, potentially sloppy,
tropical system inland somewhere across the northern gulf coast with
the majority of guidance doing so somewhere across Louisiana or
Mississippi. Heavy rainfall and potential flash flooding will be the
biggest threat across the region although additional threats could
occur depending on storm strength. The majority of rain will occur
Thursday through Saturday, but could linger into Sunday morning
depending on how strong the storm becomes and where it moves inland.

NBM`s 50% blend depicts widespread totals of 3-6 inches across
Louisiana parishes with somewhat lower amounts in the 1-3 inch range
across southeast Texas. The NBM`s 90% probability of exceedance
which is commonly used as the worst case scenario paints up to 15
inches of rain in a few spots across lower acadiana. As with all
tropical systems, the highest rain totals are likely to occur in
narrow swaths where training rain bands set up.

Jones

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Monday)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

After moving inland, the tropical disturbance will weaken while
slowly lifting north. A weak upper level ridge will build into the
area late Sunday into Monday dropping precipitation chances below
normal while pushing afternoon highs back into the mid to upper 90s.

Jones

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Upper level ridging overhead and a weak high pressure at the
surface will yield fair skies, light southwesterly winds and very
few thunderstorms across the area this afternoon. Any storms that
do manage to develop will dissipate around sunset with mostly
clear skies and calm winds overnight. Light, patchy ground fog
will again be possible at AEX, but this is not expected to cause
significant restrictions.

Jones

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

High pressure extending across the northern Gulf will maintain
light onshore winds and low seas through tomorrow. Winds and seas
will increase Thursday through the weekend as a tropical
disturbance moves across the northern gulf. There is a 40%
chance of this disturbance strengthening into a tropical storm.
Regardless of development, gusty winds and widespread rain is
expected Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Light southerly winds will maintain dewpoints in the mid to upper
70s through Wednesday. Afternoon minimum relative humidity values
are expected to range from 50 - 70% today and tomorrow. Widespread
rain and gusty winds are expected Thursday through Saturday as a
tropical disturbance moves across the northern gulf impacting the
region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  97  74  96 /   0  10  10  50
LCH  76  93  76  91 /   0  10  10  60
LFT  76  93  76  89 /   0  30  40  90
BPT  74  93  74  91 /   0  10  10  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flood Watch from Thursday morning through Saturday evening for
     LAZ032-033-044-045-055-143-152>154-243-252>254.

TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM....66
AVIATION...66