Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 062344
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
644 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
07/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS FM SRN ARK ACRS LA INTO THE NW GULF. NLY
FLOW ALOFT WAS MAINTAINING A DRY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WITH SKC
TO PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. LT VRBL WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME
MORE SELY SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BECOMES CNTRD EAST OF THE AREA.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH IS ANALYZED OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON
RIDGING DOWN INTO THE FORECAST AREA...HELPING TO PROVIDE ANOTHER
NICE WEATHER DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY. ON THE BIG PICTURE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS
OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES...WITH UPPER LEVEL
LOWS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND MOUNTAIN WEST...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BETWEEN THE TWO.

SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE GRADUALLY EAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND...WITH RETURN FLOW BEGINNING BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER A
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE RETURN WILL STILL
BE MEAGER AT FIRST.

OMEGA BLOCK BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST
AND WEAKENS DURING THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME...TO BE REPLACED
BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A SURFACE
REFLECTED LOW...ALSO OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

THIS WILL HELP INCREASE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...WITH THE DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PUSHING AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON.

THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY MONDAY NIGHT. A
WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. ANY SURFACE
FRONTS OR UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES LOOK TO STAY NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WITH NO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND AMPLE
MOISTURE...WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.

RUA

MARINE...
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN ARKANSAS INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS AND IS PROVIDING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH LOW SEAS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE
TOMORROW WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
THESE ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE PLAINS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO
20 KNOT RANGE...SO SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  53  83  60  83 /   0   0   0  10
LCH  58  82  63  81 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  58  82  63  82 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  59  83  64  82 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...24



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