Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 230257
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
957 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

.UPDATE...Rain chances continue to decrease across the region this
evening, however rainfall rates in the remaining stronger storms
is still fairly high. Will keep the FF watch for now until the
convection exits. Also modified the pops to reflect current
trends, but overall the previous forecast remains on track.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 629 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...
For the 23/00Z TAF Issuance.

AVIATION...
An upper level disturbance will propagate eastward across Central
and Southern Louisiana this evening with an associated band of
showers and thunderstorms. Some brief heavy rainfall and cloud to
ground lightning will accompany this activity along with IFR
ceilings and visibilities. After the disturbance exits the
KLFT/KARA sites by 23/04Z significant shower activity will be
ending at terminals. Remainder of the night will see ceilings
lower to MVFR then IFR levels, with gradual improvement during
Tuesday morning.

Rua

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 430 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Short Term...Tonight through Tuesday...
Regional radar imagery shows light to moderate rain continuing
across the region this afternoon. There have been a few isolated
thunderstorms that have developed over the coastal waters;
however, more widespread convection has not developed. Overall
trend in the forecast has been for lower rainfall totals this
evening and tonight given the stratiform nature of the
precipitation. There is still a small chance for some minor
flooding and no changes to the Flash Flood Watch will be made with
it currently set to expire at 1 AM tonight.

The cold front that has been providing forcing for the showers and
thunderstorms over the past two days will begin to exit the region
late in the day on Tuesday. This will result in another chance of
showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the evening hours. The
cold front is expected to clear the CWA by late tomorrow evening
with northwest winds ushering drier air into the region.

Long Term...Wednesday through Sunday...
A 500 hPa upper level ridge and associated surface high pressure
will build into the region for the second half of the work week.
Cooler conditions are expected on Wednesday with cold air
advection over the region. Wednesday night into Thursday is also
expected to have an ideal setup for radiational cooling with clear
skies and light winds. Onshore flow is expected to redevelop
Thursday and temperatures will return to normal for early summer.
The next chances for rainfall is expected late into the weekend as
the next shortwave trough approaches the region.

MARINE...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue over the coastal
waters through the overnight hours. Winds will decrease as this
first round of showers and storms exit the region and small craft
exercise caution conditions are expected to end by morning.
Another round of showers and thunderstorms will be possible
Tuesday as a cold front moves across the coastal waters. Winds
will increase behind the front and could result in small craft
exercise caution conditions Tuesday night. Offshore flow will be
in place over the coastal waters through Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  63  79  58  77 /  70  30  50  10
LCH  67  82  62  80 /  70  30  50  10
LFT  70  83  65  79 /  90  50  40  10
BPT  67  84  59  82 /  50  40  50  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flash Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for LAZ033-044-045-
     052>055.

TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Exercise Caution until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ452-
     455-472-475.

     Small Craft Exercise Caution until 10 PM CDT this evening for
     GMZ450-470.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...05



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