Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 210907
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
407 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A CONTINENTAL TYPE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. NO RAIN CHANCES ALONG WITH LOWER HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL BE THE RESULT...ALTHOUGH A LITTLE BIT MORE IN A WAY OF
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM JET STREAM ALOFT.

MOISTURE RETURN WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST...AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. THIS
WILL INCREASE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY. AIR MASS LOOKS TO BE TOO
CAPPED EARLY ON WEDNESDAY...LIMITING RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER...LATE
IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING...DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BE ABLE TO
GET A FEW STORMS GOING. ALSO...SURFACE CONVERGENCE AS A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS...WILL HELP INITIATE STORMS OVER
THAT WAY. VERY GOOD INSTABILITY IS NOTED WITHIN THE
ENVIRONMENT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS...THAT MAY EVENTUALLY CONGEAL INTO A MCS THAT WOULD PUSH
EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY
NORTHERN ZONES...DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WOULD FAVOR
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IF ACTIVITY GETS GOING...AND SPC HAS
THE FORECAST AREA OUTLINED IN SLIGHT RISK DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

COULD VERY WELL SEE LESS ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IF MCS
DOES DEVELOP AND WORK OVER THE ATMOSPHERE...SO WILL JUST HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO
CHANCE CATEGORY ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IN THE FAST AND ACTIVITY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SHOULD
BE ABLE TO TAP INTO A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. THIS UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO PUSH A COLD/DRY FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THAT WOULD THEN DRY AND
STABILIZE THE AIRMASS...PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

RUA

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
BECOME MORE EASTERLY TODAY...AND SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT...AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES ACROSS THE GULF FROM THE EAST...AND A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOP FROM WEST TEXAS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  78  59  82  64 /  10  10  40  50
LCH  78  64  82  68 /   0  10  30  40
LFT  79  62  83  68 /   0  10  20  40
BPT  80  65  83  69 /   0  10  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...07


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