Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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205 FXUS64 KLCH 111641 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1141 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Wx map shows weak surface high over the Eastern U.S. giving our region northeast winds around 5-10 mph. Temperatures in the mid to upper 80s across the area this morning. Dewpoint gradient across the I-10/U.S. 190 corridors with mid 70s to the south, and mid to upper 60s to the north across Central Louisiana. Short term guidance still shows scattered showers and thunderstorms forming along this nearly stationary "frontal" boundary later this afternoon, ongoing 30-50% chances looks good. 08/DML && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday night) Issued at 345 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Early morning sfc analysis shows our old frontal boundary now about stalled near the I-10 corridor with high pressure centered over the Great Lakes providing a light mainly nerly flow over much of the forecast area. Water vapor imagery shows troffing in place over the ern 1/3 of the country, with a shortwave/cutoff low dropping esewd across the Red River Valley. Local 88Ds have shown a few showers/storms mainly over the coastal waters tonight, although some activity was noted earlier in the overnight over Cameron Parish. Otherwise, sfc obs/satellite imagery indicate a partly cloudy and slightly warm night ongoing. With the sfc boundary progged to continue inching swd toward the coast through today, and combined with some influence from the approaching shortwave, daytime heating, resultant mesoscale boundaries and good moisture (forecast soundings indicating mean RH values to 70 percent and PWAT values to 1.9 inches), expect another round of scattered showers/storms across mainly the srn 1/2 of the area by the afternoon. POPs taper down quickly behind the front with no precip being carried across portions of cntl LA. Rainfall totals for today are expected to be on the light side with amounts generally running 1/4 to 1/2 inch in most areas within the higher rain chances. This activity will linger past sunset before dissipating with loss of heating. Best rain chances for Wednesday initially shift to the coastal waters closer to the boundary before it begins meandering its way back onshore during the afternoon hours. We should see a return to dry conditions for Thursday as ridging aloft begins building back over the region. We could see perhaps a shower/storm or two over our far sern zones during the afternoon where capping is progged to be least and moisture best. 25 && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 345 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 The week will end hot and dry across the region as dry air aloft continues to advect around the eastern periphery of a sprawling upper level ridge. This ridge will build across the northern gulf Friday and Saturday suppressing afternoon convection and keeping skies mostly clear. This, combined with dewpoints falling into the mid to upper 60s due to afternoon mixing, will allow highs to climb into the mid 90s both Friday and Saturday. The lower dewpoints will keep apparent temperatures below advisory criteria, but it will still feel quite hot. The ridge slides into the Southeastern U.S. by Sunday where the southerly flow aloft will then guide a surge of tropical moisture across the Gulf of Mexico. There remains a fairly large spread between ensemble members regarding where this stream of moisture will set up as well as it`s diameter, but probabilities are increasing for a heavy rain/potential flash flood event somewhere across the gulf coast Sunday through the middle of next week. Based on the most recent ensembles and NBM guidance, increased PoPs across the region both Sunday and Monday. Even without the max surge of moisture, the departure of the ridge justifies at least scattered PoPs for diurnally driven afternoon convection. Despite the heavy rain threat, there continues to be no consistent signal of organized tropical development with this wave. Jones && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) VCTS across southern terminals this afternoon through 01z. Northeast winds around 7-8 kts, diminishing to 3-5 kts after 00z, and northeast 7-8 kts once again after 15z Wednesday. 08/DML && .MARINE... Issued at 345 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Once again this morning, no headlines are expected on the CWF during the forecast period as flow remains rather light (for now). 25 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 89 67 89 64 / 10 0 10 0 LCH 91 72 90 71 / 50 20 30 20 LFT 92 73 92 71 / 50 20 30 20 BPT 92 73 91 72 / 50 30 30 20 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM....66 AVIATION...08