Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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011 FXUS64 KLCH 100452 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1152 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 338 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 High pressure ridge overtop the region is holding on by a thread, per latest 500 mb analysis. Digging trof over the Great Lakes Region is working on this high, and it will continue to do so overnight. High pressure gets shunted to the east as a cold front meanders down into Louisiana during daylight hours Monday. Decreasing heights aloft and ample surface moisture will work with this boundary, making it the focus of shower and thunderstorm activity throughout afternoon hours Monday. Not expecting any kind of organized severe risk with the front moving in. This front stalls out along the coastline through the remainder of the short term period, becoming weaker with each day. This will result in another round of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon, again, with no organized severe risk. Somewhat more-dry air is set to arrive in the wake of the "cold" front Monday and Tuesday. This should result in some slightly cooler daytime temperatures as well as lower Heat Indices Monday and Tuesday. HI values to top out in the upper 90s to around 100 F. 11/Calhoun && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Saturday) Issued at 338 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 For the entire period, we could see isolated to scattered PoPs, with the most active weather possible over the weekend depending on a low level disturbance. Temperatures will be near climatological normals midweek, with a warmup over the end of the week. At the very beginning of the period there is a weak trough that will continue developing as it moves into NETX. This trough will sink south into Louisiana before taking a dive into the gulf, weakening even more as it does. At the surface, there will be a weak stalled boundary sitting right off the coast that will remain there until it washes out late in the week. As a result of the incoming trough and boundary along with diurnal processes, we could see isolated showers and storms fire up during the afternoon and early evening hours. As the boundary washes out and moves further from the area, weak ridging will build in. Sunny skies and light northerly winds can be expected with slightly lower dewpoints. Model guidance by the end of the week and over the weekend are split as to what we can expect. A low level disturbance shows up in most of the models, however the placement and strength of it varies greatly. If the disturbance moves closer to the central gulf, we could see scattered to numerous showers and storms across most of the CWA. If it moves closer to FL / the eastern gulf, we could end up with a drier and pleasant weekend forecast. Stigger/87 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1150 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Light winds with scattered high clouds will continue overnight. Widespread patchy fog is again expected to develop around 09Z or so however, guidance is not in great agreement on placement of fog tonight. Therefore, opted to go with tempo groups to account for reduced VIS at all sites through the early morning. After fog lifts main concern will be isolated showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon hours. This convection shouldn`t cause too many issues, and will gradually die off as we approach sunset. && .MARINE... Issued at 338 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 A mainly light onshore flow will persist through tonight as high pressure remains in control over the northwest Gulf of Mexico. On Monday, a weak surface front is forecast to move into the coastal waters and stall, with a light northerly flow is expected in its wake through Tuesday. Thereafter, the front is forecast to wash out, with southerly flow again expected to linger over the region through the remainder of the forecast period. Daily isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected starting Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 93 72 89 67 / 0 10 40 10 LCH 90 74 91 71 / 0 0 30 10 LFT 94 74 93 73 / 0 0 30 10 BPT 91 75 93 73 / 10 10 30 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....87 AVIATION...17