555
FXUS64 KLCH 121117
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
617 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 227 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Despite the lower dewpoints across much of the region this
morning, patchy fog has developed across parts of Southeast Texas
that saw significant rainfall yesterday evening. Expect this fog
to remain shallow and dissipate quickly after sunrise. Elsewhere,
dewpoints in the low to mid 60s will make temperatures today feel
a bit more tolerable after record high dewpoints through the
month of May.

An upper level trof with some decent upper level moisture is
expected to traverse the region today, but guidance is in good
agreement on this having a very limited effect on PoPs this
afternoon possibly due to the drier low level air. As such, only
widely scattered afternoon convection, primarily along the
developing seabreeze, is expected mainly along and south of the
I-10 corridor.

The trof pushes off to the East tonight with upper ridging
building into the region Thursday and Friday. This will put a lid
on PoPs and should keep skies mostly clear. This, combined with
the continued presence of drier than normal low level air, will
allow afternoon highs to climb into the mid 90s which will push
afternoon RH values down into the 30-40% range which may pose a
low end fire danger for marsh grass and other quick reacting
fuels. Per the Keetch Byram Drought Index, we`ve remained wet
enough recently to keep the overall wildfire risk very low.

Jones

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 227 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

With exception to Saturday the entire long term period is expected
to see isolated to numerous PoPs. Temperatures on Saturday will be
above climatological normals, with them falling to or below normal
from the Sunday to middle of the consecutive work week.

The long term kicks off this weekend with a ridge of high pressure
aloft, centered over the ArkLaMiss region. While the upper ridge
will help in suppressing convection for Saturday, it will make it
quite toasty. Temperatures in the mid to upper 90s are forecast
along with dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s. This will yield
heat indices in the 100 to 107 range. Regardless of the issuance of
a Heat advisory, sensitive populations are urged to take the proper
precautions. Over the course of that day, we will see that ridge
shift off to the east, relocating itself over the southeast and/or
eventually the Atlantic Coastline by the end of the long term
(varying model differences). As that is occurring, a trough will
ascend into the Bay of Campeche then further north into the Gulf
over the work week.

As a result of the departing ridge / incoming trough along with
diurnal processes, we could see scattered to numerous showers and
storms fire up during the afternoon and evening hours. Model
guidance has not resolved the placement and timing as of yet,
however with the surge of moisture expected from that system, parts
of the Gulf Coast could potentially see a flood threat over the
early to mid week period. PWATs along the coast on Sunday are in the
1.8 to 2 inch range which is in the 75th to 90th percentile range.
Monday, they are in the 2 to 2.4 inch range. Tuesday and Wednesday,
they are in the 2.2 to 2.8 range. Of course this will all depend on
where the plume of tropical moisture sets up and this is highly
likely to change over the coming days. As of now, there is a
Marginal Risk (lvl 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall on day 5 (Sunday)
along the coastal LA Parishes, with potential for greater and or
additional threats over the Monday to Wednesday period.

Stigger/87

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Light Northeasterly winds will prevail through the taf period. The
combination of afternoon heating and an upper level disturbance
moving across the region will have the potential to produce
scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. These are not
expected to develop far enough North to impact AEX, but could
impact the coastal terminals between 18 and 22Z. Away from storms,
BKN mid and high clouds will prevail today and tonight.

Jones

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 227 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Light offshore flow will prevail today through Friday in the wake
of a weak frontal boundary now oriented just offshore. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the vicinity of the
boundary this morning with storms moving inland by this afternoon
in response to seabreeze development. Little additional
precipitation is expected Thursday or Friday. Precipitation
chances increase significantly Sunday through mid next week as a
weak tropical wave moves across the central Gulf of Mexico. Both
onshore winds and seas will increase in response to this wave
with winds increasing to around 20 knots by Monday and seas
increasing to between 5 and 7 feet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  88  62  91  64 /  10   0   0   0
LCH  90  70  92  70 /  30  10  10   0
LFT  92  70  92  72 /  30  10  10   0
BPT  92  72  94  71 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...66