Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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163 FXUS64 KLIX 240812 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 312 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Upper level ridging near the Bay of Campeche continues to nose up into the western Gulf of Mexico and Louisiana. Shortwave energy continues to pass just to the north of the ridge, with one passing to the east of the CWA early this morning, and another moving into southwest Arkansas. A few showers passed through southwest Mississippi during the past evening, and can`t rule out a similar occurrence later today. Southerly flow continues to pump moist air into the area, with early morning temperatures and dew points mainly in the 70s. Precipitable water values were in the 1.5-1.6 inch range on the 00z soundings around the region, with a bit more of a cap noted on the LIX sounding as compared to the LCH and JAN soundings. The southwest Arkansas shortwave will move eastward today, with a non-zero threat of a shower or storm on the Mississippi coast if the cap weakens enough. At this time, it appears that any shortwave energy moving over the ridge position on Saturday should be too far north to produce any precipitation across the local area. Forecast soundings do show low level temperatures, particularly at 925 mb, warming up a degree or two C today, and perhaps another degree or so on Saturday. Considering most of the area remained in the upper 80s Thursday afternoon, that would put high temperatures generally in the lower 90s in most locations, with one or two, like Baton Rouge, nudging into the middle 90s. Heat index values look like they should top out in the 100-105F range both days. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Sunday doesn`t look much different than tomorrow, with highs in the lower and middle 90s. Beyond Sunday, global models not in particularly good agreement on timing of individual shortwaves passing mainly to the north of the area. Will hold onto the low end PoPs for Monday/Tuesday north of Interstate 10, as there is at least some support for convection both days. What the global models do agree on is that shortwave energy should beat down the ridging enough to turn the mid level flow across the area northwesterly by mid week. This should introduce a bit drier (comparatively) air to the area, and take the edge off the heat a bit by Tuesday into Wednesday. Daytime dew points should drop into the 60s to the north of Interstate 10 on Tuesday, and even south of Interstate 10 by Wednesday/Thursday. That will help bring temperatures down 3-5F by midweek, which will only knock them down to around normal for late May. Before we get to that point, humidity values may be a bit on the uncomfortable side, with heat index values near 105F Sunday and Monday, with a bit more emphasis on the areal coverage of heat index values on Monday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1127 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 VFR conditions for most of this TAF cycle. MCB may experience MVFR VIS/CIG over the next few hours around sunrise. Otherwise, a few brief drops to MVFR CIGs will be possible respectively, but still lack confidence in placing BKN skies below 3kft or adding TEMPO groups at this juncture. Regardless, after sunrise conditions will again remain mostly VFR. Winds will remain light generally 10kt or less out of the south. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Onshore flow is expected to continue through the holiday weekend, although wind direction may become a little more southerly with time. Pressure gradient remains rather weak, so that should generally keep winds near or below 15 knots. Even behind the front at midweek next week, winds should generally remain below 15 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 91 70 92 70 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 94 76 95 76 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 92 74 93 74 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 91 77 92 77 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 89 75 90 75 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 90 73 91 73 / 10 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM....RW AVIATION...RDF MARINE...RW