648
FXUS64 KLIX 290839
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
339 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

We continue to look to the west to see what our next weather day
will be like. These MCS complexes are sometimes refered to as "ridge
riders". Cute name, but it doesn`t tell you enough. A synoptic dome
of high pressure is quite large and can take up quite a chunk of
real estate across the CONUS and oceans. So just leaving it as these
systems are moving around a large dome of high pressure would not be
enough because there is a lot of space this could occur. But upon
closer inspection, one can see where each high dome weakens at its
edges, there is a trough that develops between two high domes. This
weakness between two highs is where these complexes like to "ride".
This is used by models as well. These troughs can be located at the
sfc or at higher levels, but some type of boundary is located near
these systems. This morning we still find the sfc dew pt gradient
located over the area. This boundary will move a bit farther NE
today and this again will be where these complexes travel east. They
will weaken as they travel east since stability increases farther
east, but they should be capable of getting into our area before
dissipating. This will be shown in the package as a diurnal swing in
precip numbers. Severe storms are always a possibility with these NW
flow regimes. And numbers, although falling a bit today, are still
moderate to high. The highest of these are showing up over the south
shore areas for today. Downburst numbers remain high for MSY today
at 26 but moderate readings are also coming in for BTR and MCB in
the lower 20s. Since all severe wx fields are conditional, it does
not mean there will be severe storms where these numbers are
highest. It does mean that for a given location, if a storm is
capable of developing, the locations with the highest numbers have
the best chances of getting severe wx. For ASD and GPT numbers are 8
and 0 respectively. All other index numbers and variables that
support severe storms are also found in this manner. So one can see
very quickly that conditions stabilize as one moves east across our
area and this is due to the frontal axis providing strong stability
north and east of it and instability along, south and west of it.
This will in some respect, be the dying grounds for these complexes
as they move east. But outflows from these can still spark some
storms downstream. By Thu, this frontal axis should be well to the
NE of our area with convective bursts still following it. But as
this boundary departs we will still find ThetaE boundaries/gradients
to know where these features will move. There are two distinct
ThetaE gradients that show up, one is with the departing front and
the other is from north central TX southward toward Mexico. These
two paths will be the general avenues for these systems to follow
Thu. With this being the case, we structured precip numbers from
lowest south to highest north as the northern portion of the area
should be the highest risk of this ThetaE gradient departing.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Eventhough these MCS features develop their own ThetaE gradients,
they still flow along the gradient downstream and these will have
to be followed daily but a general placement of these boundaries
will remain over or near the northern and western gulf coast
stretching into the dry areas of west and northern TX.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

VFR will be found at all terminals through this taf period with the
exception of two. The most at risk terminals for IFR will be BTR and
MCB late today. There is a chance to get some TSRA for these two
locations and if this occurs, IFR conditions could quickly develop
for a short time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 244 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Southerly winds of 10-15kt will develop again over waters east of
the Miss River today and remain over all waters for the remainder of
the week. Any storms that are capable of developing or moving
offshore will be able to produce erratic and much higher wind
speeds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  90  67  86  67 /  40  30  50  30
BTR  94  72  91  72 /  30  20  40  20
ASD  92  72  91  71 /  10  10  20  20
MSY  92  76  90  75 /  10  10  20  20
GPT  91  74  90  73 /  10  10  20  20
PQL  93  70  91  70 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE