403
FXUS64 KLIX 241925
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
225 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Memorial Day)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

It is another warm day with most of the area in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. This is leading to a few locations now seeing heat
index values in the upper 90s and with another hour or two of
warming it wouldn`t be a shock if a few sites saw their heat index
hit the century mark or even a degree more. Otherwise definitely
some drier air moved into the area aloft. GOES16 TPW indicates
values around 1.2 to 1.4 at 19z and this mornings sndg measured
1.24" which is below normal for this time of the year. This is why
we aren`t seeing anything more than sct shallow cu.

Overall the Memorial Day Weekend should be fairly quiet with the
only real impact being the Heat and it is expected to increase
through the weekend with Memorial day likely seeing the highest
temps and heat index values. A ridge centered over the western Gulf
and northern Mexico is dominating the region and will continue to
through Monday. This led one wave already moving north of the area
with additional s/w tonight through Monday all skirting just north
of the region and thus leaving the region mostly rain free. Mid lvl
hghts look to rise overnight tonight and should remain around 588-
590dm through Monday morning. On Monday a more potent s/w will move
through the Plains and into the Lower MS Valley and try to erode the
northern portions of the ridge but with the ridge holding strong
across the Gulf the ridge will likely hold across most of the CWA.
The only real short of seeing any rain could be southwestern MS
where the slight erosion of the ridge along with a weak front could
be enough to spark isolated convection. But that boundary will
likely due more to temps than anything and likely lead to warmer
temps for most of the area Monday.

As for temps and the HEAT...look for a slight increase in afternoon
highs by a degree each day. LL temps tomorrow range around 25 to 27C
and this should lead to just about everyone finally getting into the
90s with some locations in the mid 90s. Along the immediate MS coast
and SELA coast the southerly winds could still keep these areas in
the upper 80s but that will likely, possibly by Sunday but more so
on Monday. This should begin to lead to multiple sites seeing the
max heat index climb into the lower 100s but we still likely to
remain below 105 and could be a few degrees below that. That said,
this will be the hottest weekend of the year and given the
likelihood of many people spending time outside please use extra
caution as many may not quite be acclimated to these conditions yet.

Drink plenty of fluids (preferably water).
Take frequent breaks.
Where light and loose fitting clothing.
Take care of friends and family.

/CAB/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Thursday night)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

After a hot and generally dry Memorial Day weekend, temperatures
will be trending back down some. Although we likely won`t get down
to normal temps, at least shouldn`t be flirting with record
highs. These cooler temps come thanks to an upper level trough
early next week. Models show a cutoff low dropping south out of
Canada as a shortwave trough passes across the upper MS Valley on
Monday. The merging of these 2 features will aide in the southward
progression of the associated cooler airmass. Although its still
uncertain how far south the cold front will reach, the trough will
suppress ridging aloft which will do 2 things midweek onward:
bring down temps by a few to maybe several degrees and allow for
scattered convection to develop. /MEFFER/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Overall we have mostly VFR conditions and should remain that way
through the evening hours. A few sites temporarily drop into MVFR
as low clouds move directly over some terminals but satellite
easily shows that it is more scattered with mainly cloud streets
forming along the moist southerly sfc and LL flow. After 9z we
could see some stratus develop bringing MVFR cigs to a few
terminals and even a slight reduction in vsbys to MCB. Most likely
time for light to moderate br/fg to impact MCB would be from
10-13z. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

All is quiet on the marine front. High pressure currently centered
over FL and the easter Gulf will remain in place through the
weekend. This is going to lead to persistent weak to moderate
onshore flow. Winds will likely remain the lightest during the day
but as typical as we move to Summer see an increase overnight.
Also appears we should begin to see the typical nocturnal jet east
of the MS Delta and south of coastal MS. Otherwise nothing else
really to discuss. /CAB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  91  71  91 /   0  10   0   0
BTR  76  95  76  95 /   0  10   0   0
ASD  75  93  75  92 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  77  92  77  92 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  76  89  75  89 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  74  91  73  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...CAB