Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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684 FXUS64 KLIX 231847 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 147 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 342 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Disturbance moving east over central Miss this morning will help cause some shower activity over the northern half of the area. There will be some boundaries from this activity left over the area as well which could serve as a focus. Soundings show deep enough vertical depth to get some shower activity and by noon or early afternoon, there could be enough heating coupled with these boundaries to provide a few showers and maybe even a storm. There won`t be many but we have increased precip numbers to show this trend. If there are a few sh/ts that develop during the afternoon, they will simply cool things down with some beneficial rain but will also decay after sunset. Friday looks to be a bit different as there should be even less activity around than what will be seen today. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 342 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 We will begin to tack on a degree each day through Monday as we should begin to see some mid 90s by the weekend. These temps are from 6 to 8 degrees above normal levels for this time of year. We will also be in the vicinity of a few record highs around the area over the weekend but several sites have records in the upper 90s and even a few at or just above 100F. So we are in that time of year when it starts to get a bit hot. Heat index values will also rise to around the 105F area as we get into Monday with higher moisture content in the boundary layer. A stalled front over central TX will get some added forcing by Monday morning to start moving our way. This front should be here by Mon night or early Tue. It could provide some showers or even a storm or two but it will help to dry things out a bit with lower dew pt air. The cloudy cover will help though since this time of year fronts with dry air only provide higher optical depth values giving way to much warmer temps when there is no cloud cover. This front should stall either just offshore or at the coast and start its way back by mid week. Still no organized storms seen on the horizon. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 139 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 A mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings were still in place across the area with scattered CU field overhead. Decks were still lifting so most, if not all, terminals should be VFR within the next hour or so. Although an isolated shower or 2 will be possible this evening and overnight, the probability is too low to have in the TAFs. Cigs will not be an issue outside of any showers that develop but tonight could show some MVFR cigs moving in from the north mainly for BTR and MCB. MEFFER && .MARINE... Issued at 342 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Southerly winds of 10-15kt will remain through much of this fcast. There is a front that could stall either just offshore or at the coast Monday night or early Tue. No organized storms are expected with this front but there is a chance that winds could shift to a northerly direction for Tuesday but should remain rather lite. Even if this front does manage to shift winds, it will be moving back to the north by mid next week with southerly winds becoming re- established. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 70 90 70 92 / 10 0 0 0 BTR 75 94 76 95 / 10 0 0 0 ASD 74 92 74 93 / 10 0 0 0 MSY 77 92 77 93 / 10 0 0 0 GPT 74 89 75 90 / 20 0 0 0 PQL 72 90 74 91 / 20 10 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TE LONG TERM....TE AVIATION...ME MARINE...TE