Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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807 FXUS64 KLIX 230848 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 348 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 342 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Disturbance moving east over central Miss this morning will help cause some shower activity over the northern half of the area. There will be some boundaries from this activity left over the area as well which could serve as a focus. Soundings show deep enough vertical depth to get some shower activity and by noon or early afternoon, there could be enough heating coupled with these boundaries to provide a few showers and maybe even a storm. There won`t be many but we have increased precip numbers to show this trend. If there are a few sh/ts that develop during the afternoon, they will simply cool things down with some beneficial rain but will also decay after sunset. Friday looks to be a bit different as there should be even less activity around than what will be seen today. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 342 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 We will begin to tack on a degree each day through Monday as we should begin to see some mid 90s by the weekend. These temps are from 6 to 8 degrees above normal levels for this time of year. We will also be in the vicinity of a few record highs around the area over the weekend but several sites have records in the upper 90s and even a few at or just above 100F. So we are in that time of year when it starts to get a bit hot. Heat index values will also rise to around the 105F area as we get into Monday with higher moisture content in the boundary layer. A stalled front over central TX will get some added forcing by Monday morning to start moving our way. This front should be here by Mon night or ealry Tue. It could provide some showers or even a storm or two but it will help to dry things out a bit with lower dew pt air. The cloudy cover will help though since this time of year fronts with dry air only provide higher optical depth values giving way to much warmer temps when there is no cloud cover. This front should stall either just offshore or at the coast and start its way back by mid week. Still no organized storms seen on the horizon. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 342 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 VFR should be the rule today not the exception. But there will be a few showers around with even a -TSRA not being ruled out during the afternoon/evening, but chances are not high enough to show in this taf set for any particular site. Cigs will not be an issue outside of any showers that develop but tonight could show some MVFR cigs moving in from the north mainly for BTR and MCB. && .MARINE... Issued at 342 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Southerly winds of 10-15kt will remain through much of this fcast. There is a front that could stall either just offshore or at the coast Monday night or early Tue. No organized storms are expected with this front but there is a chance that winds could shift to a northerly direction for Tuesday but should remain rather lite. Even if this front does manage to shift winds, it will be moving back to the north by mid next week with southerly winds becoming re- established. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 88 70 90 70 / 10 10 0 0 BTR 93 75 94 75 / 10 10 0 0 ASD 90 74 92 74 / 10 10 0 0 MSY 90 76 91 77 / 10 10 0 0 GPT 86 75 88 75 / 10 0 0 0 PQL 89 72 90 72 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TE LONG TERM....TE AVIATION...TE MARINE...TE