Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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403 FXUS64 KLIX 241925 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 225 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Memorial Day) Issued at 220 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 It is another warm day with most of the area in the upper 80s to lower 90s. This is leading to a few locations now seeing heat index values in the upper 90s and with another hour or two of warming it wouldn`t be a shock if a few sites saw their heat index hit the century mark or even a degree more. Otherwise definitely some drier air moved into the area aloft. GOES16 TPW indicates values around 1.2 to 1.4 at 19z and this mornings sndg measured 1.24" which is below normal for this time of the year. This is why we aren`t seeing anything more than sct shallow cu. Overall the Memorial Day Weekend should be fairly quiet with the only real impact being the Heat and it is expected to increase through the weekend with Memorial day likely seeing the highest temps and heat index values. A ridge centered over the western Gulf and northern Mexico is dominating the region and will continue to through Monday. This led one wave already moving north of the area with additional s/w tonight through Monday all skirting just north of the region and thus leaving the region mostly rain free. Mid lvl hghts look to rise overnight tonight and should remain around 588- 590dm through Monday morning. On Monday a more potent s/w will move through the Plains and into the Lower MS Valley and try to erode the northern portions of the ridge but with the ridge holding strong across the Gulf the ridge will likely hold across most of the CWA. The only real short of seeing any rain could be southwestern MS where the slight erosion of the ridge along with a weak front could be enough to spark isolated convection. But that boundary will likely due more to temps than anything and likely lead to warmer temps for most of the area Monday. As for temps and the HEAT...look for a slight increase in afternoon highs by a degree each day. LL temps tomorrow range around 25 to 27C and this should lead to just about everyone finally getting into the 90s with some locations in the mid 90s. Along the immediate MS coast and SELA coast the southerly winds could still keep these areas in the upper 80s but that will likely, possibly by Sunday but more so on Monday. This should begin to lead to multiple sites seeing the max heat index climb into the lower 100s but we still likely to remain below 105 and could be a few degrees below that. That said, this will be the hottest weekend of the year and given the likelihood of many people spending time outside please use extra caution as many may not quite be acclimated to these conditions yet. Drink plenty of fluids (preferably water). Take frequent breaks. Where light and loose fitting clothing. Take care of friends and family. /CAB/ && .LONG TERM... (Monday Night through Thursday night) Issued at 220 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 After a hot and generally dry Memorial Day weekend, temperatures will be trending back down some. Although we likely won`t get down to normal temps, at least shouldn`t be flirting with record highs. These cooler temps come thanks to an upper level trough early next week. Models show a cutoff low dropping south out of Canada as a shortwave trough passes across the upper MS Valley on Monday. The merging of these 2 features will aide in the southward progression of the associated cooler airmass. Although its still uncertain how far south the cold front will reach, the trough will suppress ridging aloft which will do 2 things midweek onward: bring down temps by a few to maybe several degrees and allow for scattered convection to develop. /MEFFER/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1259 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Overall we have mostly VFR conditions and should remain that way through the evening hours. A few sites temporarily drop into MVFR as low clouds move directly over some terminals but satellite easily shows that it is more scattered with mainly cloud streets forming along the moist southerly sfc and LL flow. After 9z we could see some stratus develop bringing MVFR cigs to a few terminals and even a slight reduction in vsbys to MCB. Most likely time for light to moderate br/fg to impact MCB would be from 10-13z. /CAB/ && .MARINE... Issued at 220 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 All is quiet on the marine front. High pressure currently centered over FL and the easter Gulf will remain in place through the weekend. This is going to lead to persistent weak to moderate onshore flow. Winds will likely remain the lightest during the day but as typical as we move to Summer see an increase overnight. Also appears we should begin to see the typical nocturnal jet east of the MS Delta and south of coastal MS. Otherwise nothing else really to discuss. /CAB/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 71 91 71 91 / 0 10 0 0 BTR 76 95 76 95 / 0 10 0 0 ASD 75 93 75 92 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 77 92 77 92 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 76 89 75 89 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 74 91 73 90 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CAB LONG TERM....ME AVIATION...CAB MARINE...CAB