564
FXUS64 KLIX 092340
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
640 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Toasty once again today, but with subtle height falls and a tad
more clouds we`re falling just short of record highs today.
Doesn`t make it feel any less hot out there, but reprieve back to
normal temps for this time of year is on the way this week.

A digging trough across the eastern CONUS with a trailing
shortwave at the base of it will erode the ridging overhead and
assist in pushing a weak surface front southward into our area
during the day on Monday. Ample moisture (>70F dew points), less
capping, and plenty of afternoon instability (2500-3000 j/kg
MLCAPE) from daytime heating will allow for scattered pop up
thunderstorm activity primarily focused along the seabreezes and
spreading outward as the cold pools from downdrafts drop. Highest
PoPs are focused along the MS coast and along/north of the I-10/12
corridor where better lift will be present near the boundary. With
that said, mid-level lapse rates are meager at around 6 C/km and
shear is abysmal at 10-15 knots at most. This means more of a
classic afternoon summer storm environment with storms popping up
and sitting in place. A storm or two packing strong downdraft
winds and small hail cannot be ruled out with this environment.

The frontal boundary will wash out with time along the coast
providing light northeasterly winds into Tuesday and Wednesday as
surface high pressure set up over the Mid Mississippi River
Valley. This should assist in pushing some slightly drier air into
northern areas during the middle part of the week.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday night)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

The surface front will continue to reside just south of the region.
Globals are still coming in a bit drier as a dry northerly flow
evolves over the region. Cannot rule out some showers or storms, but
they should be confined along the immediate coast or offshore. Going
into midweek, surface high pressure over the Tennessee Valley will
keep a northeasterly flow across the region.
Aloft, the mid level flow weakens slightly. An H5 impulse will
amplify and move southward across east Texas. This is a bit of a
change from yesterday where the impulse was forecast to roll over
our region, but the axis looks to now stay to our west. This will
again limit rainfall and again less of a QPF signal is being
realized in the forecast guidance. This impulse eventually pinches
off into an upper level low across the northern gulf by the end of
the workweek. Again, our region looks to remain mostly dry and
perhaps even drier than currently being reflected within the
consensus guidance.

Eyes also turn to our south across the southern Gulf and Western
Caribbean Sea. A Central American Gyre, if you will, or a very broad
area of lower pressures will evolve. On the eastern side of this
broad area of lower pressure, low level tropical moisture will
stream northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and into the
Florida Peninsula late in the week and into the weekend. Globals are
still struggling just a bit with resolving a surface trough or a
weak surface low that may develop...however, if a low does form it
appears to be hybrid in nature and likely not purely tropical.
Regardless, the synoptic pattern tries to take on a Rex Block form
by the end of the forecast period with an upper high positioning
over the Ohio and TN River Valleys and an upper level low continuing
to reside over the northern Gulf. With the heights increasing aloft,
expect temperatures to climb well into the 90s by Thursday or
Friday. Again, continued to lower POPs a good bit for much of the
long term as the dry trend is becoming more and more increasingly
likely. (Frye)

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

VFR conditions expected for the whole forecast period. Generally
light winds and a few high clouds through tomorrow but some low
chances of showers and storms will be possible in the afternoon
tomorrow, especially southern terminals. But impacts, if any,
should be relatively brief. -BL

&&

.MARINE...Consistent onshore, southerly flow continues as surface high
pressure scoots to the east. A frontal system will slowly progress
southeast through early next week that should stall offshore Tuesday
into midweek bringing a period of variable to northerly winds to the
area once again. All of these winds will be 5-10 knots or less. Once
the front clears the area winds become predominantly easterly. Locally
higher winds and seas will be possible with any storms that develop
starting Sunday into next week.Issued at 326 PM CDT Sun Jun 9
2024

Onshore will cease as a frontal system will slowly progress
southeast through early this week. The boundary will stall
offshore Tuesday into midweek bringing a period of variable to
northerly winds at 5-10 kt to the area. Once the front washes
out, winds become predominantly easterly situated south of a high
pressure system. Locally higher winds and seas will be possible
with any storms that develop. The pressure gradient will gradually
build with easterly winds of 10-15 knots by the end of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  90  66  87 /   0  40  10  10
BTR  75  94  73  92 /   0  40  10  30
ASD  75  94  71  92 /   0  40  20  30
MSY  77  93  77  90 /   0  40  20  40
GPT  76  93  72  91 /   0  60  30  20
PQL  75  95  70  92 /   0  60  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJS
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...BL
MARINE...TJS