726
FXUS64 KLIX 090830
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
330 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

It`s going to be hot for one more day and start cooling off
Monday. We are directly under a stacked upper/surface high that,
but like yesterday the Relative Humidity is low enough that Heat
Indices will only reach the low 100s so no heat-related products
are necessary. I will mention, though, that because it is still
early in the season and the acclimation process hasn`t had time to
happen...Be Cautious with your outside activities, take breaks to
cool off, and drink plenty of water. The high pressure will
degrade through the day and be replaced into Monday by a surface
front bringing slightly cooler, more normal temperatures and a
chance for rain later in the day. Winds are southerly and very
light, bringing moisture out of the Gulf that will support
Monday`s rain with PWs in the 1.8 inch range. Rain totals are
very modest, in the quarter inch range. There may be enough energy
to generate some storms with lightning and thunder, but no severe
activity is expected.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Previous long-term discussion remains relevant to conditions, so
will utilize its content here with credit to Forecaster Frye.

The trough and attendant front begin to exit stage east going
into the middle part of the week. Eyes shift upstream as an H5
shortwave begins to amplify and move toward our region by early
Wednesday. This feature within the northwesterly flow could signal
yet another MCS...we will wait and see, but the pattern at least
is supportive.

At the same time, globals have been signaling a very broad surface
low (Central American Gyre) developing. This feature will help push
deep low level tropical moisture northward, especially across the
eastern Gulf of Mexico. Globals are having a difficult time with
this feature and the evolution. GFS has been the more bullish
solution and attempts to develop a hybrid surface low. The issue
here is the very broad low level pressure field is causing some
resolution issues...so the GFS is latching onto convective feedback
signals pretty easily and dropping a low under these features, which
is not atypical for the GFS this time of year. The GEM and ECMWF
show the moisture and at least an inverted surface trough.
Similarly, the broad low level pressure field is also causing these
globals issues as well at least in terms of where and when the
trough develops and where it eventually ends up. For now, late week
and into next weekend the overall confidence is low in terms of the
actual forecast. Went with the consensus guidance through most of
the long range for POPs. If the latest 08/12z guidance is anywhere
near close to the eventual outcome, the best rainfall will be
situated east of our forecast area. Regardless, we`ll have to keep
monitoring this feature and the evolution as a few GEFS and EPS
members do try to bring this weak trough/wave closer to our region
next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

VFR conditions continue for the whole forecast period. Light/calm
winds are expected overnight then becoming westerly with few to no
clouds. There is a little bit (~30%) chance of showers/storms
that`s within MSY`s 30 hour forecast but left out mention of it
since it`s still a while to go as well as low chances. -BL

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Currently winds out of the south and very light with seas calm to
1ft. With the front expected late Monday winds will become
generally variable through Tuesday evening, with locally
higher winds and seas possible in and around convection. By
Tuesday evening winds settle into predominantly easterly at
around 10kt. Seas build to 2-3ft by the end of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  93  71  90  67 /   0   0  30  10
BTR  95  74  95  73 /   0   0  40  10
ASD  94  74  95  73 /   0   0  40  20
MSY  93  77  93  78 /   0   0  40  20
GPT  92  75  93  73 /   0   0  30  30
PQL  95  74  95  71 /   0   0  30  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM....DS
AVIATION...BL
MARINE...DS